[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 111735
SWODY2
SPC AC 111733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUG 40 NNW GUP
10 WSW ASE 35 ESE CYS 30 NW YKN 20 E INL ...CONT... 25 W EFK 10 W
BID.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF HRCN DENNIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.  AT
THE SURFACE...OTHER THAN THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS...A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S.


...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA OF IL/IN/KY DURING THE PERIOD. THE
NAM/ETA FORECASTS MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY TO BE ACROSS IL EWD INTO
NRN OH...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. WHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
 VERY WARM AND MOIST.  THUS...WILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. GIVEN THAT DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S-MID 70S GIVING MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG.  GIVEN WEAK SHEAR WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
ISOLATED...THUS THE LOW PROBABILITIES.

...ERN CO INTO NERN NM...

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE/COLORADO HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM TO NEAR/AROUND 8.5C/KM.  THUS... WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SOME
HAIL.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.