[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 101735
SWODY2
SPC AC 101734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
MOB 25 SE MEI 30 SW TUP 25 SW DYR 30 SSW CGI 15 WNW MVN 40 NNW EVV
60 W LOZ 50 ESE CHA 30 W ABY 10 SSW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DRT 40 ENE AUS
50 NNW POE 10 WSW GLH 35 W ARG 30 ESE VIH 25 ESE OJC 25 NNE EMP 30
ESE ICT 10 WSW SPS 15 E SJT 50 ESE P07 ...CONT... 20 W ELP 20 ENE
ALM 55 NNE 4CR 50 NNW LVS 40 NE ALS 35 ESE EGE 25 WNW LAR 55 WSW RAP
35 NNW REJ 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 85 NNW ANJ 15 WSW CWA 35 W JVL 20 SW
FWA 20 S CMH 25 ENE LBE 25 WSW ACY 15 NNE PHL 25 S IPT 35 NNE BFD 45
NW BUF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION INTO THE TN / LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL SYSTEM DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BE WELL INLAND -- ACROSS NERN
MS -- AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NWD
TOWARD SRN IL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACCORDING TO LATEST
TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE NHC / TPC.

MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WLYS N OF SWRN
U.S. RIDGE -- SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME SHUNTED NEWD WITH TIME AS IT
IMPINGES UPON STRONG NERN U.S. / ERN CANADA RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST ASIDE FROM DENNIS
WILL BE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS.  

...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE TN / LOWER OH VALLEYS...
THOUGH DENNIS WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN
ENHANCED SLY / SELY FLOW FIELD AROUND THE ERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES.  GREATEST THREAT SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD INTO THE TN / LOWER OH VALLEYS THROUGH
12/12Z.

...NRN PLAINS...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INVOF COLD
FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE / REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  

THOUGH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE U.S. / CANADA
BORDER...MODERATE SWLYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
/ ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WEAKENING WITH TIME AND SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...WITH
MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
BROAD ZONE OF SELY / ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH
TIME ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  WITH UPPER
RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY WWD DUE TO DENNIS...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITHIN DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  

WITH 20 TO 25 KT ANTICYCLONIC NWLY / NLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS FORECAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG ERN FRINGES OF UPPER HIGH...RESULTING
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / SEVERE
STORMS.  WITH NAM APPARENTLY TOO FAR W WITH DENNIS...EXACT LOCATION
OF WRN UPPER RIDGE -- AND STRENGTH / LOCATION OF BELT OF NLY FLOW
AROUND ERN PORTION OF RIDGE -- REMAINS A QUESTION.  THUS -- WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

..GOSS.. 07/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.