[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 100548
SWODY2
SPC AC 100547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
7R4 40 SSW ESF 30 N MLU 65 SSW JBR 40 S CGI 40 WNW HOP 30 S BWG 40 E
CHA 15 SE MCN 25 N VLD 30 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DRT 60 E JCT 15
N DAL BVO 45 E ICT 30 SSW HUT 25 ENE GAG 65 NNE BGS 20 N FST 45 WSW
MRF ...CONT... 20 W ELP 20 ENE ALM 45 NE 4CR 45 WSW RTN 25 NNW FCL
35 NNW REJ 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 55 NE CMX 35 SE EAU 45 ENE ALO 10 SE
MLI 40 W UNI 15 ESE EKN 20 SE HGR 10 ESE ELM 35 WNW ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES AND TN VALLEY...

...GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY...
THE LATEST HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE BRINGS HURRICANE DENNIS INLAND
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND MOVING ACROSS MS
ON MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILES EAST OF THE CENTER WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL
IN RAINBANDS THAT SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE ACROSS MS...AL AND
WRN TN WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 30 M/S FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE
OF THE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE RAINBANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS SHOWN
BY THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE ENEWD INTO SRN CANADA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NRN MN SSWWD
ACROSS ERN SD INTO CNTRL NEB. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF
ASCENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO WARRANT A MARGINAL SEVERE MULTICELL
THREAT MAINLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 07/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.