[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091733
SWODY2
SPC AC 091731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
INL 20 SE FAR 35 ENE PIR 30 NNE CDR 50 SSE 81V 45 SE 4BQ 25 E DIK 55
NNE MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
PNS 30 SSW CBM 20 NNE TUP 25 SSE BNA 30 SW TYS 30 NE AGS 25 SW DAB
20 SSW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE CMX 25 NE RWF
35 ENE YKN 55 ENE HLC 40 E AMA 50 ESE LBB 30 NNW ABI 35 NNW MWL 15 E
BVO 50 SSE SZL 55 SSE SDF 35 NNW HKY 25 ESE GSO 20 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ELP 45 SSE ALS
35 WSW LAR 50 SE RIW 25 ESE IDA 50 S 27U 25 NW HLN 35 NNE LWT 70 NW
GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PWM 15 NW EEN
15 E UCA 30 NNW ROC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NWWD THIS
PERIOD.  DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE WRN FL
PENINSULA / SRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC / TPC.

MEANWHILE...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. 
MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL
BE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. / NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE ERN
RIDGE -- EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY INTO
THE ARCTIC.

SURFACE LOW / FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD NONETHELESS
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT --
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...SERN CONUS...
BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK / INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR HURRICANE
DENNIS...LARGE AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY / ELY FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED -- WITHIN THE ERN HALF OF THE STORM CIRCULATION -- FROM FL
NWD ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND AL...AND INTO TN.  WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR / HELICITY FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN OUTER
BANDS.

...NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...BUT WITH ONLY A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INVOF FRONT.  

AS BELT OF STRONGER /35 TO 45 KT/ SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD
ACROSS MT / WY INTO WRN AND CENTRAL ND / WRN SD WITH TIME...SHEAR
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS. 
THOUGH RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
WOULD SUGGEST THAT EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH ROTATING / SUPERCELL
STORMS.  OVERNIGHT...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AND POSSIBILITY FOR
LARGE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT MAY YIELD MCS DEVELOPMENT...WITH THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAKER WIND FIELD / LOW-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD COMBINE WITH STRONGER
CAPPING TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 
HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH FROM WRN SD / ERN CO
INTO NERN NM....AND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SERN NM / W TX...MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED / LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  

WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST ACROSS THIS
REGION...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. 
FURTHER...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...MODEST MID-LEVEL NWLYS ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS WILL RESULT IN
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. 
THEREFORE...THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
APPEARS TO EXIST...AND WILL EXTEND 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY SWD FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE RIO GRANDE.

..GOSS.. 07/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.