[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 090544
SWODY2
SPC AC 090543

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW
GFK 35 SE JMS 35 E PIR 45 WNW VTN 20 NNE BFF 50 NW BFF 30 NNE DGW 30
SSW 81V 35 E REJ 50 ENE DIK 55 N MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
DAB 20 S ORL 30 SSW AGR 35 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 E PNS SEM 10 NE BHM
40 NNE GAD 35 ESE CHA 50 NNW AHN 25 SSE AND 30 SE AGS 30 NNE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ELP 45 SSE ALS
35 WSW LAR 50 SE RIW 25 ESE IDA 50 S 27U 20 NE 3TH 60 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 25 NE RWF
35 ENE YKN 55 ENE HLC 40 E AMA 50 ESE LBB 30 NNW ABI 35 NNW MWL 15 E
BVO 50 SSE SZL 45 SSW BMG 40 ENE LEX 30 W BKW 30 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PWM 15 NW EEN
15 E UCA 30 NNW ROC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AL...GA AND
FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND...SD...FAR
NWRN NEB AND FAR ERN WY...

...ERN GULF COAST STATES...
LATEST HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE MOVES HURRICANE DENNIS INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY WITH THE CENTER MOVING ONSHORE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EAST SIDE OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FL...GA AND ERN AL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUNDAY EAST OF THE CENTER SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES SUITABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST OVER A LARGE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. MORE TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IF A DRY SLOT CAN WRAP AROUND
THE HURRICANE ALLOWING STRONG SFC HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE RAINBANDS THAT MOVE NORTH
AND NWWD ACROSS THE REGION.

...NRN PLAINS...
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD
INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN
AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD THROUGH THE LARGER TROUGH
INTO ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ND AND WRN SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2500 J/KG. IF THIS
VERIFIES...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SEVERE THREAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 07/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.