[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081732
SWODY2
SPC AC 081731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNE
DVL 35 NW JMS 45 N RAP 40 ENE 4BQ 50 NNE SHR 40 ESE BIL 55 ESE LWT
55 SW GGW 55 NNW OLF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
PNS 40 NNE CEW ABY 15 WSW JAX DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 85 WNW TCS
30 SW CAG 35 E RKS 40 SE BPI 35 E MLD 65 NNE ENV 35 SSE BOI 80 E BKE
30 NNW HLN 50 ESE HVR 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 70 NW ANJ 40 ESE MKE 25
NE MLI 35 S FOD 25 ENE GRI 30 W HUT 35 ENE PVW 20 SE BGS 25 S SJT 50
NE JCT 20 WNW ACT 20 N PRX 20 S HRO 20 WSW JBR 35 NNW TUP 35 NNW BHM
40 WNW AND 25 ENE CRW 25 SE HLG 20 SE YNG 55 WNW ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SWRN GA / SERN AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS ERN MT AND INTO
WRN ND / NWRN SD...

...SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF THIS
PERIOD...WITH U.S. LANDFALL NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF
THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE AFFECTED BY WINDS /
OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR
TORNADOES.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN U.S.
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS ERN MT / WRN ND / PARTS OF WY...WHERE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...FL AND ADJACENT SERN AL / SWRN GA...
ACCORDING TO LATEST FORECASTS FROM NHC / TPC...HURRICANE DENNIS IS
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED W OF THE FL KEYS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND SHOULD CONTINUE NNWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  ALONG SUCH A TRACK...STRONG SLY FLOW AROUND ERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS FL...AND INTO PARTS OF SRN GA / SRN
AL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK
FORECAST...AS TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN OUTER BANDS WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WHERE FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION.

...ERN MT / WRN ND...
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN MT / NWRN ND / NRN WY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD /
SEWD ACROSS WRN ND OVERNIGHT.  AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND COLD
FRONT OVER SERN AND ERN MT SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHILE GREATER INSTABILITY BUT STRONGER CAP SHOULD
PERSIST OVER THE NRN PLAINS.  BY AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL FORCING INVOF
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SWRN MT AND VICINITY...AND THEN DEVELOP / SPREAD ENEWD ALONG
FRONT INTO WRN ND.  

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...BELT OF MUCH STRONGER / SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF ND THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THUS...MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS AREAS FROM WRN ND WWD. WITH
CONVECTION FORECAST TO BE HIGH-BASED ABOVE A DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS. 
OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY ALLOW
STORMS TO INCREASE / EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER WRN ND...THOUGH COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER / INCREASED CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE
THREAT. 

...ERN NM AND PARTS OF W TX...
WEAK SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MODEST /50S/ SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT WEAK WIND FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD
GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.  THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR
WITH ANY HIGH-BASED STORM...A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER / POSSIBLY
SEVERE GUSTS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND ADJACENT W
TX.  ACROSS THIS REGION...A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING.  THIS COMBINED WITH 20 KT NNWLYS AT
MID-LEVELS MAY YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF MULTICELL
/WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR LIMITED WIND / HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 07/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.