[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080559
SWODY2
SPC AC 080558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
MOT 45 WNW JMS MBG 25 E REJ 25 SSE MLS 60 SSW GGW 65 NW GGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
PNS 30 SSW CEW 35 N DHN 30 WSW MCN 55 S AGS 40 ENE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ACY 15 W TTN 20
NW ELM 35 NNW BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 30 SW ESC
25 WSW CID 30 W HUT 45 NE PVW 20 SE BGS 25 S SJT 50 NE JCT 20 WNW
ACT 20 N PRX 40 WNW HOT 20 S MEM 35 NE CHA 60 SW RIC WAL ...CONT...
20 WNW ELP 35 ENE DRO 30 SW CAG 25 N RWL 25 NE RIW 45 ESE JAC 15 NNW
MLD 60 WNW TWF 25 NNE BKE 20 SW S06 25 N CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN GULF
COASTAL STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINES

...ERN GULF COAST STATES...
LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE PLACES HURRICANE DENNIS IN
THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY WITH THE CENTER DRIFTING NNWWD
TOWARD THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE OUTER BANDS OF
DENNIS MOVING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING EXPANDING
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...GA...AL AND SC DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE
HURRICANE SHOW STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO
850 MB WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2 OVER MOST OF
FL...SRN GA AND SE AL DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
A FEW TORNADOES WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE OUTER
RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE DENNIS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
EXIST OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED
ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL STATES.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
NEWD ON SATURDAY. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SW FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CREATING ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF ANY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR
EVENING HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ON A COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY...LARGE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT.

...WEST TX/ERN NM...
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD BE ORIENTED SSW TO NNE FROM THE
SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN CO. EAST OF THE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE NLY ACROSS W TX AND ERN NM CREATING STRONGLY VEERING LOW TO
MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z SAT SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH INVERTED V-PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/HAIL
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER CONCERNING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NM AND WEST TX DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT SUGGESTING A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD RESULT
IN SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER-LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL
POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW.

..BROYLES.. 07/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.