[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 070607
SWODY2
SPC AC 070606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CMX JVL RFD
PIA UIN MKC HUT GAG 65 WSW SPS MWL LFK HEZ MGM AUO LGC ATL TYS LOZ
LEX MIE FWA JXN FNT 70 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH
ACK ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 40 W CTY ...CONT... 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 65
SSE DRT ...CONT... ELP ONM 4SL CPR WRL JAC BYI 4LW LMT 55 NNE MFR 50
ESE SLE DLS EPH 40 NNE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW PIE PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN GBN PHX SAD
45 ESE DUG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE IN MID/UPPER
LEVELS...CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS...AND
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM CO ROCKIES TO HUDSON BAY. TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH AK PANHANDLE/BC COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN SWLY
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET FROM PACIFIC NW NEWD ACROSS CANADIAN
ROCKIES...AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVER NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
HIGH PLAINS.  BROAD UPPER LOW IS FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS SRN ONT AND
ERN GREAT LAKES FROM SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ENHANCING
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

...MN/IA/ERN SD...
POTENTIAL LATE DAY-1 MCS MAY STILL CONTAIN SOME STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS
AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION...INTO FAVORABLY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS 60S AND LOW 70S.  REF LATEST
DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.  PRIND ANY
LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH MORNING AS
DIABATIC HEATING REDUCES/ELIMINATES NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING...CAUSING WEAKENING OF LLJ. BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY ANY
MORNING COMPLEX MAY...IN TURN...PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
SUBSEQUENT/AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.  ANY SUCH CONVECTION WOULD HAVE
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...HEATED/VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. HOWEVER...BUILDING RIDGE TO W AND INCREASING
CAPPING...COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT TO RELIANCE ON PRIOR
CONVECTION...MAKE THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
ATTM.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN NEB PANHANDLE AND ERN CO SWD THROUGH W TX/ERN NM REGION. 
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE
UPSLOPE...AMIDST STRONG DIURNAL HEATING.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY
OCCUR BOTH ALONG COMMON OROGRAPHIC FOCI AND ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES
LEFT BY DAY-1 ACTIVITY.  AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT
PLAINS...HOWEVER...LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE
MULTICELL/TRANSIENT CONVECTIVE MODES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH MORE
MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS SRN/ERN MT AND WRN DAKOTAS...IN
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW E
OF JET MAX.  MEAN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM ARE
REASONABLY PROGGED OVER REGION GIVEN PERSISTENT WSW/SW FLOW ALOFT. 
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND
HAIL FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS.  CONCERNS OVER MOISTURE AND
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING PRECLUDE LARGE
ENOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

...TIDEWATER AREA AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN...
REMAINS OF FORMER T.S. CINDY ARE PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN
PERIOD.  FAVORABLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN E AND S OF TRACK OF ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL
VORTICITY LOBE...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EXIT-PHASE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 
HOWEVER...STRONGEST DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE.  THREAT MAY BE OVERWITH
ALTOGETHER BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD IF CYCLONE REMNANTS EJECT SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PROGGED.

...S FL...
DENNIS IS FCST BY NHC TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS WRN CUBA AND INTO SERN
GULF LATE IN PERIOD AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES
-- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AND RELATED WATCHES/WARNINGS. BECAUSE OF ITS LARGE
CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR OUTER-BAND SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES MAY
AFFECT FL KEYS AND BRUSH PORTIONS SRN PENINSULA.  IF CURRENT
TRACK/INTENSITY PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE AS IS OR SHIFT
EWD AT ALL...THIS AREA EVENTUALLY MAY NEED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.