[SWODY2] SWODY2

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ACUS02 KWNS 071741
SWODY2
SPC AC 071740

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S
4CR LVS 35 SE RTN 15 WSW DHT 20 NE PVW 50 SE LBB 40 S BGS 10 NE P07
40 ESE MRF 45 S GDP 40 NW GDP 10 S 4CR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
ELO 45 SE DLH 35 ESE BRD 25 SE AXN 45 W FOD 40 WNW BIE 40 SE LBF 35
W CDR 45 ESE 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 20 SSW Y22 30 SW MBG 40 W ABR 45 ESE JMS
60 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PSX NIR COT 70
SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN 45 NNE TUS 40 NE DUG 20 W
SVC 55 ENE SOW U17 35 E SLC 20 SSW MLD 40 NE EKO 55 N BAM 60 SW BNO
30 SSW PDT 35 NW CTB ...CONT... 105 NE MQT 30 SSE CWA 25 SSE LNR 20
SSW OTM STJ MHK 20 E GAG 20 NNW LTS 35 SE SPS 15 NE SHV 20 N LUL 25
N TOI 30 NW AGS 30 W HSS 50 NNE HSV 35 ENE PAH 15 NE DEC 35 NE CGX
35 W MBS 60 SE OSC ...CONT... 10 NNW MSS 10 NNW GFL ORH ACK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS REMNANTS OF CINDY MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
PERIOD...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF.  

MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NWRN
CONUS...STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.  THOUGH
OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AWAY FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL SYSTEMS...BROAD SLY / SELY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT WARM ADVECTION / UPSLOPE FLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS.

...NRN PLAINS...
LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL
LIKELY BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY LARGE MCS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  THOUGH NAM /
NAMKF BOTH SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY EVOLVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS /
NEB...PORTIONS OF THIS AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTIVELY COOLED --
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONALLY...SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF WRN U.S.
TROUGH...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE LIKELY YIELDING A FAIRLY STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN AREAS FOR AFTERNOON STORM REDEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE IN AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED /
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP.  THIS APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AN
ARCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY --  PERHAPS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF IA WWD
ACROSS NEB AND THEN NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO ACROSS
PARTS OF NRN MN / WRN ND IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD
FRONT.

ASSUMING STORMS DO DEVELOP...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL
SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION...WITH
MAIN THREATS LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. 
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS WITH TIME AND THEN SHIFT
SEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.  

...ERN NM AND ADJACENT AREAS OF W TX...
WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF LEE
TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  STORMS MAY INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM
/ FAR W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
FORECAST INTO THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.  WITH SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NLY / NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS.  THOUGH
SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE INITIALLY...DRY / DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT.  ASSUMING
SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AN MCS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A
LARGE COLD POOL MAY EVOLVE AND MOVE SEWD / SWD ACROSS W TX THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS.

...MT...
LIMITED MOISTURE / INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS MT THIS
PERIOD...WHILE FAVORABLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

ATTM...GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
THE STATE WHERE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED...AND WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SERVE AS A PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
REMNANTS OF CINDY SHOULD BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN NC / VA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION SHOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS NC / VA AND THE DELMARVA REGION WITH TIME.  GIVEN VERY MOIST
/ POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS S AND E OF CIRCULATION
CENTER...STRONG / ROTATING STORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO ACROSS
THIS REGION.

...S FL AND THE KEYS...
DENNIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL / WRN CUBA AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD AS A
POTENTIALLY MAJOR HURRICANE -- PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND ADVISORIES FROM NHC / TPC.

ASSUMING NERN QUADRANT OF DENNIS CROSSES THE KEYS / SRN FL DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TRACK
FORECASTS...LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR OUTER BAND SUPERCELLS / ISOLATED TORNADOES.  WILL
MAINTAIN A 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FOR THIS AREA TO REFLECT THIS
THREAT...WITH A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK LIKELY IN LATER
FORECASTS ASSUMING TRACK FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

..GOSS.. 07/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.