[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 061757
SWODY2
SPC AC 061756

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
RRT 35 SSW GFK 65 SW JMS 35 SW Y22 25 SE 4BQ 45 SSE BIL 25 WNW BIL
35 SE LWT 40 SSW OLF 10 NW ISN 80 NE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
CVS 50 ENE LVS 25 WSW PUB DEN 40 E FCL 30 SSW SNY 40 WSW IML 55 S
GLD 30 SW LBL 30 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 S LBB 55 NNE HOB 20 W CVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 40 W RTN
10 SE CAG 20 S WRL 40 E MLD 25 NW LOL 30 ESE MHS 50 NE MFR 15 S ALW
50 N FCA ...CONT... 45 E INL 15 NNE BRD 35 ENE ATY 10 W RST 35 SE
DBQ 25 SSE BRL 15 SSW LWD 20 SE SUX 30 NNE GRI 40 W HUT 20 ENE SPS
30 WSW MWL 25 WNW LFK 35 SE MLU 55 SSW CKV 45 W HTS 10 NW PIT 35 NNE
BUF ...CONT... 20 N PBG ISP ...CONT... 50 SSE VCT NIR COT 70 W COT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE IA IN GENERAL THUNDER

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL
TEND TO SHUNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NEWD INTO S
CNTRL CANADA THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE AND
MOVE FROM ERN MT BY EARLY THURSDAY INTO WRN ND BY THURSDAY EVENING.
REMNANTS OF CINDY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE ERN U.S. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH.


...ND THROUGH NW MN...

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO ND AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SHUNTED OVER TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SRN CANADA. THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS
AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. WITH STRONGER MID AND UPPER FLOW
REMAINING IN POST FRONTAL REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. MULTICELL STORM
STRUCTURES APPEAR MOST LIKELY STORM TYPE...BUT A SUPERCELL OR TWO
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN ND. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER W OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN MT WHERE NLY POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ENHANCE
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE HIGHER
BASED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING NWD THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS AND ROCKIES THIS PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND VEER TO MORE NNWLY...RESULTING IN WEAKER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THESE LIMITING
FACTORS MAY TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF
STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
OVER MOST OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING
COMMENCES. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO...NM AND
SRN WY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN PAST FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...STRONG VEERING PROFILES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 25-30 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE MORE NLY COMPONENT OF UPPER FLOW...STORMS MAY
BE SLOWER TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME ADVANCING E OF THE CO/NM BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.

...MID ATLANTIC AREA...

REMNANTS OF TS CINDY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC THURSDAY AS IT BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS STORMS INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 07/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.