[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 051725
SWODY2
SPC AC 051724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RSL 25
E P28 45 SW END 30 W LTS 15 NNE PVW 35 E TCC LHX 40 NW LIC 25 ESE
CYS 20 S BFF 30 SE AIA 20 NE MCK RSL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 20 NE 3B1
45 S HUL ...CONT... 20 SSW 7R4 35 WNW HEZ 30 N GLH 30 E MEM 55 N MSL
40 SE BNA 45 N CSV 25 S LEX 25 N LUK 30 SW FDY 30 ENE TOL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF GDP 40 NNE
ROW 40 NW TCC 30 SW PUB 20 SSE 4FC LAR 35 NE CPR 20 WSW SHR 30 ENE
WEY 20 NW SUN 75 SE 4LW 45 SSW SVE RBL MFR DLS 65 NNE 4OM ...CONT...
75 NNE DVL 20 N JMS ABR 30 ESE MHE 35 NE OMA 30 ENE MKC 15 N UMN 10
WSW PGO 35 WNW ACT DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE EXTREME NRN ROCKIES AND
SWRN CANADA DURING THE DAY. NRN PORTION OF SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY
FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE NERN U.S. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO SERN CANADA. TRAILING PORTIONS OF FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. TROPICAL STORM CINDY
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.


...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

STORMS MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS FROM DAY 1 OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. HOWEVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN CANADA AND A LEE TROUGH
OVER CO/NM WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST...LOW LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAIN AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME
FROM PARTS OF NM NWD THROUGH CO AND SERN WY AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD
EWD. TENDENCY FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD WILL RESULT IN WEAKER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A MCS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED E OF THE CENTER OF TS CINDY AS IT
MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND... BUT
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUING THREAT
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF AL.


...CNTRL/ERN MT...

MID/UPPER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MOVE EWD ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THROUGH MT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG E OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
FRONTAL ZONE AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD NEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE
OF THE WIND PROFILES...BUT HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 07/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.