[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060610
SWODY2
SPC AC 060609

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N
GFK JMS MBG 40 SE REJ 40 SW 4BQ MLS GDV SDY ISN 80 NW MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CVS
TCC LHX LIC AKO IML MCK HLC GAG CDS 55 E LBB 60 SSE CVS CVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW PBG ISP
...CONT... 35 ESE GPT TCL HSV CSV LOZ LEX IND 45 WSW FWA 30 SSE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ELO DLH STC
BKX MHE BUB EAR SLN ICT OKC BWD JCT DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF 4FC CPR
WRL SUN SVE MHS 65 NNE MFR RDM 50 N FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS DAKOTAS/SERN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE FROM CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES NEWD...NRN PORTION OF WHICH
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND HUDSON BAY REGIONS.  DOWNSTREAM
MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER ERN CONUS.  OPERATIONAL
ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL...ALONG WITH MANY 21Z SREF MEMBERS...AGREE ON WEAK
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB OVER ERN GREAT LAKES OR ADJACENT
PORTIONS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA OF SERN ONT/SWRN QUE. ASSOCIATED
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN NEWD EJECTION OF REMAINS OF TS
CINDY...SEE NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC FOR SPECIFIC
FCST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON THIS SYSTEM.

FARTHER NW...MINOR/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO PASS OVER
PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...AMIDST GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING SWLY/WSWLY FLOW ALOFT.  WEAK SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MT
AND PORTIONS DAKOTAS...WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF SERN
MT/NWRN SD PORTION OF FRONT.

...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS FOR A BRIEF INTERVAL DURING LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CLUSTERING INTO AN MCS OR TWO IN
EVENING.  MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. AS RIDGE
BUILDS TO W AND NW...FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAT DAY-1...ESPECIALLY IN UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN MORE BRIEF
WINDOW FOR OPTIMAL STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...FCST LOW-MIDLEVEL
WIND FIELDS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND ENLARGED 0-3
KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING STRONGLY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS.  THIS
FACTOR...COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY AIDED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND RELATED STRONG AFTERNOON BUOYANCY -- SHOULD SUPPORT
SEVERE THREAT.

...DAKOTAS/SERN MT AREA...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCI SHOULD BE FRONTAL ZONE OVER DAKOTAS/SERN
MT...AND POSTFRONTAL NELYS ADVECTING RESIDUAL MOISTURE UPSLOPE
ACROSS SRN MT. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT AND
IS EXPECTED TO ME MARGINAL INVOF COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED SFC DEW POINTS
IN 60S F SHOULD YIELD MDT-STRONG SFC-BASED BUOYANCY OVER ND AND NRN
SD.  LINE OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL PRIMARILY MIDAFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.  STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR N-NE OF LEE CYCLONE ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FROM SERN MT TOWARD WRN DAKOTAS.

...TIDEWATER/PIEDMONT AREAS...DELMARVA TO SC...
REMAINS OF TS CINDY ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH -- AND PERHAPS
REGIONALLY ENHANCE -- WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ALIGNED SW-NE OVER SERN
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGION.  ASSOCIATED LIFT AND BACKED FLOW
ALONG/E OF THAT FRONT MAY ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND ENHANCE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SE-NE OF LOW CENTER...PARTICULARLY DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING OPTIMIZES SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. 
UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY OF LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS THIS FAR
INLAND...AND OF MESOSCALE DETAILS REGARDING FRONTAL INTERACTION --
PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.