[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 050617
SWODY2
SPC AC 050616

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RSL
P28 CSM 50 NNW CDS EHA LHX 40 E DEN BFF AIA LBF RSL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW 7R4 LFT HEZ
GWO TUP CSV LOZ LEX BMG DNV CGX MKG OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF GDP CVS
TCC RTN 4FC LAR 50 NE CPR 50 ENE COD WEY SUN 75 SE 4LW 45 SSW SVE
RBL MFR DLS 65 NNE 4OM ...CONT... RRT TVF FAR 45 ENE ATY FOD IRK COU
TBN HRO 45 SSE DAL DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH FCST
PERIOD...AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM
NWRN ONT SSWWD TOWARD NRN IA -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH PERIOD.  THIS WILL YIELD BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND NERN
PLAINS.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS FCST DOWNSTREAM FROM MIDLEVEL TROUGH -- ACROSS
PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC REGION -- AND MOST PROBABLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN
PA.  THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE --
1005-1010 MB RANGE WITH WEAK SURROUNDING PRESSURE GRADIENTS.  AS
SUCH...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG 00Z DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...PREVIOUS RUNS OF SAME...AND 21Z SREF MEMBERS AS TO ITS
CENTRAL LOCATION AND SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF ATTACHED FRONTS.  PRIND
WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ZONALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD OR
SWWD INTO LOW...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION FROM PA/NJ THROUGH CAROLINAS.

FARTHER W...WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SHIFTING SWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS/ERN CO. 
BY AFTERNOON...VERY BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD
EXTEND WNW-ESE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...MODULATED HEAVILY BY
OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OCCURRING BEFORE THEN.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
YET ANOTHER EPISODE OF SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED OVER REGION AGAIN
THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWS.  SPECIFIC FOCI
WILL BE MESOSCALE IN NATURE AND DICTATED BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
OCCURRING THIS MORNING THROUGH DAY-1 PERIOD.  MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR
SHOULD BE FROM PORTIONS ERN CO SEWD TOWARD NERN OK...WHERE SFC FLOW
IS RELATIVELY BACKED...E-NE OF WEAK LEE-SIDE LOW AND INVOF WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE.  EXPECT STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR GIVEN ELY/SELY SFC
FLOW AND NWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS...YIELDING POTENTIALLY LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS IN SOME LOCALES.  HOWEVER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT DURATION/LONGEVITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BETWEEN
MIDAFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S
MAY COMBINE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR STRONG BUOYANCY
ACROSS SOME PORTIONS WRN KS AND NW OK. FARTHER NW ACROSS ERN
CO...PROGGED ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT SHOULD ADVECT MOISTURE
UPSLOPE AMIDST STRONG SFC HEATING AND WEAKENING AFTERNOON CAP.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES INTENSIFICATION OF T.D. 3 TO STRONG TROPICAL
STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER SERN LA DURING THIS PERIOD.  REF NHC
BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC FOR LATEST TROPICAL  WATCHES
AND FCST TRACK/INTENSITY.  PROGGED WIND FIELDS INDICATE MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL...OVER SOME PORTION OF NERN
SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION.  ANY CHANGES IN SYSTEM TRACK OR
SIZE/INTENSIFY OF LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS COMPARED TO THOSE
CURRENTLY PROGGED WOULD COMPEL ADJUSTMENT OF OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY.

...NERN CONUS...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY OVER
PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR...S THROUGH E OF SFC LOW.  GREATEST 
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN AFTERNOON WHEN SFC DIABATIC HEATING
AND MLCAPE EACH ARE STRONGEST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...I.E. 50-60 KT
AT 250MB...HOWEVER WEAK FLOW BELOW 700 MB WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IN MOST AREAS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND MARGINAL
ATTM FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AREA.

...NRN PLAINS...
VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LARGE BUOYANCY BUY
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND E OF A CONFLUENCE LINE/WEAK DRYLINE THAT
SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS/ERN WY.  STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS...E OF UPPER RIDGE WHERE MIDLEVEL
FLOW HAS SOME NLY COMPONENT.  MIDLEVEL FLOWS 10-15 KT WILL LIMIT
BULK SHEAR...AND LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD BE WEAK.  THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS INSUFFICIENT ATTM FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.