[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041728
SWODY2
SPC AC 041727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
4CR 25 E LVS TAD 45 ESE FCL BFF AIA 50 SW MHN HLC 45 ENE GAG SPS 30
S SEP 55 SW SJT 15 E CNM 50 E 4CR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
HUL POU 45 WSW MRB 10 SW CRW 35 SE LUK 25 NNW LUK 20 NNW DAY 60 NNE
CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 30 SSE ALM
ONM 40 N GNT 25 SW MTJ U24 40 NE TPH 20 ESE LOL 40 W OWY IDA 40 NNE
27U 50 NE MSO 55 N LWT 65 S GGW 30 NNW GDV 35 WNW ISN 60 NNW ISN
...CONT... 80 NNW GFK DVL 45 SSE BIS 50 ENE PIR 35 WNW DSM 30 S P35
30 S OJC SGF 15 NW UNO 30 WSW MTO CGX 30 SSE MKE 10 ESE LNR 15 ENE
MKT 45 S AXN RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO WRN OK / NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. 
MEANWHILE...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE ROCKIES
BEHIND THIS TROUGH / AHEAD OF QUASI-STATIONARY SWRN U.S. TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY /
PLAINS STATES ATTM SHOULD WEAKEN...WHILE A SECOND FRONTAL SURGE
MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA / THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
THOUGH THIS FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS...SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN MUDDLED ACROSS THIS REGION --
WITH STRONGEST BOUNDARIES LIKELY BEING THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR
CONVECTION. 

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO TX / OK...
MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE ENHANCED SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE PLAINS.  OVERALL
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT EPISODIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS / MCSS --
INITIATING PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
-- AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS. EXACT LOCATIONS OF
CONCENTRATED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THREAT REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
ATTM...AS WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE SRN PLAINS -- AND
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY 1
PERIOD -- WILL AFFECT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LOCATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM
ERN CO / SWRN NEB SWD ACROSS ERN NM / PARTS OF NWRN TX.  ASSUMING
SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...DEGREE OF RESULTING INSTABILITY AND AMBIENT SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT LOCATION OF ANY SUCH
ENHANCED THREAT AREAS CANNOT BE DISCERNED ATTM.

...THE NORTHEAST...
DIURNAL HEATING OF WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT
/ AWAY FROM CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD RESULT IN
500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON...FROM NEW ENGLAND
SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...20 TO 30
KT SWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SEVERAL MORE ORGANIZED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS.  WEAKER FLOW FROM KY
SWWD INTO AR SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO ONLY ISOLATED / PULSE-TYPE
SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM OH /
WV NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. 
DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN STORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED...WITH
A SLOW DECREASE IN STORMS / SEVERE THREAT LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING
/ OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 07/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.