[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040612
SWODY2
SPC AC 040611

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
ROW 25 E LVS TAD 45 ESE FCL BFF AIA 50 SW MHN MCK DDC GAG 40 SE CDS
70 NW ABI 50 NNW HOB 55 NNE ROW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
HUL LCI MSV EKN CRW HTS LUK 35 W DAY 30 SSE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BPT CLL JCT
DRT ...CONT... ELP TCS 4SL GUC ASE EGE 50 NE RKS IDA 40 NNE 27U 3DU
LWT MLS GDV SDY 80 NNW ISN ...CONT... 95 N GFK DVL MBG 50 ENE PIR
SUX OMA EMP BVO FYV HRO STL CGX MKE VOK EAU 45 N BRD RRT ...CONT...
ACY 10 WNW NHK RIC 35 ENE RWI 55 SE EWN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN NEW ENGLAND TO
MID/UPPER OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL FEATURE FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY REGION...AND RIDGING ACROSS NRN
HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE DETAILS ARE
UNCERTAIN...BUT VERY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG 04/00Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 03/21Z SREF MEMBERS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS PATTERN.  PHASING OF SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS --
POSSIBLY INCLUDING MVC FROM DAY-1 CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES -- SHOULD
LEAD TO TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SEWD ACROSS SWRN GREAT LAKES
TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX REGION.
AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS...EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS KY TO
ARKLATEX.  FRONTAL POSITION FARTHER W THROUGH W TX AND NM WILL BE
STRONGLY MODULATED BY PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

...NERN CONUS...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT DAY IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS
FROM OH VALLEY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINATION OF
LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF GREAT LAKES TROUGH...MOIST ADVECTION
AND DIURNAL/DIABATIC SFC HEATING.  ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT
COMBINED WITH WEAK CINH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF
CONVECTION BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...BOTH OVER WRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK
AREA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF ONT.  MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH SWD EXTENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...MAKING SRN EDGE OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL RATHER
NEBULOUS.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN.  MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z WITH LOSS OF SFC
HEATING.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
NW-FLOW SEVERE EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
EXPECTED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM ERN CO THROUGH ERN NM. 
ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL SPEEDS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SUFFICIENT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS MOVING
SEWD TO SSEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF
MOTION IS FCST -- TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER EVENTS OVER
WRN TX/NM UNDER WEAK-MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT -- KEEPING BULK OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL OVER HIGH PLAINS EVEN AFTER DARK.  DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS ARE EXPECTED  IN INFLOW REGION OF CONVECTION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...AIDING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONGEAL INTO RELATIVELY DENSE CLUSTER OR MCS AND MOVE SSEWD
OR SWD OVER SRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA AFTER DARK.  MORE SPECIFIC
CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS REGION -- INCLUDING
MOST PROBABLE TRACK OF EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS -- WILL DEPEND STRONGLY
ON POSITION/ORIENTATION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT BY LATE DAY-1
CONVECTION.

...SRN LOW PLAINS...
MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL MAY MOVE SEWD FROM
SERN CO/TX PANHANDLE VICINITY LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2 PERIODS. 
REF DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR FCST DETAILS.  SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
LINGER PAST 05/12Z AS ACTIVITY ENTERS PARTS OF NW TX...AND/OR RED
RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX.  PRIND SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT MORNING AS
1. BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLES...CAUSING WEAKENING LLJ AND DIMINISHING
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND
2. ACTIVITY MOVES INTO REGIME OF WEAKER MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOWS AND SMALLER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 07/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.