[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031706
SWODY2
SPC AC 031705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCK
DDC CSM 10 WSW LTS CDS PVW 10 SSW CVS 50 W TCC RTN TAD PUB COS DEN
CYS DGW 45 S GCC 45 WSW RAP 55 ENE CDR MCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
DTW SDF HOP 50 NE PBF 45 NW LIT 20 WNW HRO 10 ESE COU MLI MTW 40 ENE
PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX 55 S CLL
AUS SJT BGS HOB 35 NW GDP ALM ONM 4SL 45 N CEZ CNY 50 NE U24 30 WSW
OGD 40 SE MLD RKS RWL 30 SW CPR 30 SSW COD WEY 60 SW 27U BOI SVE RBL
35 W MHS MFR RDM PDT ALW GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 45 NW HVR 30 NNE
PHP 9V9 65 W YKN 40 ENE BUB 30 SE HSI 25 SSE CNK 20 E FNB 15 N LWD
MCW STC AXN JMS 45 WSW DVL 75 NNE MOT ...CONT... EFK BGM IPT SHD LYH
DAN RDU GSB EWN HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO
AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO AR...
H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD
THROUGH MONDAY...SKIRTING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/GREAT LAKES
REGION.  A SECONDARY SPEED MAX OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL
MOVE EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ENEWD
INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  

A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO UPPER
MI...WI SWWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.  A WEAK LOW SHOULD
FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KANSAS CITY...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE.  THIS LOW WILL THEN TRAVEL NEWD TOWARD
CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE.

WEAKENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE OCCURRING VCNTY THE FRONT FROM THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO ERN KS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  TSTMS
SHOULD INTENSIFY/DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW AGAIN
BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO LINES OR LINE
SEGMENTS.  FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID-LEVELS WILL PRIMARILY BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY...SUGGESTING THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWS
ECHOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE MODES ACROSS
LOWER MI...IL AND INDIANA.  

FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT...THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE
WEAKER THAN FARTHER N. IN CONTRAST...BUOYANCY WILL BE GREATER
FARTHER S GIVEN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  AS A RESULT...ANY TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES/FRONT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...MAINLY FROM NERN
AR NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VLY WHERE SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
 

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
REMNANT MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS AND
CNTRL OK MONDAY MORNING.  LLJ THAT WILL BE FEEDING THIS COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH A
BRANCH TRANSLATING FARTHER NE INTO THE LOWER OH VLY BY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE MCS.  THERE WILL BE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF TSTMS /WITH RISKS OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/
DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME DIVERGENT
ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES WITH TIME AND ANY DEFINED FOCI...IF ANY...ARE
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM.

BY AFTERNOON...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN UPSLOPE FROM NERN NM TO
SERN MT.  STRONGEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT/CONVERGENCE IS APT TO EXIST
ALONG/N OF THE CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED FRONT ACROSS CO/NERN NM.  
INTENSE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON.  DEEP
LAYER FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT LARGE DEGREE OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
TORNADO.  ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S DURING THE
EVENING.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FROM
ERN CO/NERN NM INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS.

..RACY.. 07/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.