[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030621
SWODY2
SPC AC 030620

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCK
DDC CSM LTS CDS PVW CVS 50 W TCC RTN TAD PUB COS DEN CYS DGW 45 S
GCC 45 WSW RAP 55 ENE CDR MCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
DTW SDF HOP 25 WNW MEM 55 NNE LIT HRO JEF MLI MTW 40 ENE PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE PSX 55 S CLL
AUS SJT BGS HOB 35 NW GDP ALM ONM 4SL 45 N CEZ CNY 50 NE U24 30 WSW
OGD 40 SE MLD RKS RWL 30 SW CPR 30 SSW COD WEY 60 SW 27U BOI SVE RBL
35 W MHS MFR RDM PDT ALW GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 45 NW HVR PIR 9V9
OFK LNK BIE MHK OJC P35 MCW STC AXN JMS 45 WSW DVL 75 NNE MOT
...CONT... EFK BGM IPT SHD LYH DAN RDU GSB EWN HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MI TO ERN OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MOST IMPORTANT UPPER AIR FEATURES FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.  THE FIRST -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER MT/SK LINE -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD GENERALLY
ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
PERIOD.  MODEL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED/AMPLITUDE/TILT OF THIS FEATURE
ARE FAR SMALLER THAN IN PRIOR RUNS...AND NOW INDICATE A POSITIVELY
TILTED PERTURBATION FROM SRN HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY REGION...SWWD
ACROSS NRN ONT TO UPPER MS VALLEY...BY ABOUT 05/00Z.  ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT IS FCST TO EXTEND FROM LH AND LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS
PORTIONS SRN/ERN MO BY THEN...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY INVOF RED
RIVER AND WWD INTO ERN NM.

...GREAT LAKES TO AR...
LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR BOW
ECHOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS EXISTS OVER PORTIONS LOWER MI...POSSIBLY
AS FAR S AS PORTIONS IL/INDIANA.  RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND MORE
SPORADIC/ISOLATED DOWNBURST EVENTS EXTENDS FARTHER SW INTO ERN
OZARKS REGION..DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES -- NEVER EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG BECAUSE OF
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING WITH HEIGHT -- ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
WITH SWWD EXTEND ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR VALUES 35-34 KT IN NRN LOWER
MI...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 15 KT OVER AR.  BY CONTRAST...BUOYANCY
WILL INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...BECAUSE OF LARGER DEGREES OF BOTH
SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT.  SFC DEW POINTS 70S
F SUPPORT FCST MLCAPES ABOVE 2500 J/KG OVER AR/WRN KY/SERN MO
REGION...DIMINISHING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWER DEW POINTS MAY RESTRAIN BUOYANCY.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS EXPECTED WITH HAIL
BEING MAIN THREAT AND DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO EXPECTED.  A NOCTURNAL
CLUSTER OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND MAINTAIN WIND POTENTIAL WELL AFTER
DARK...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF OUTLOOK AREA.

SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST N OF SFC
FRONT...OVER BROAD AREA FROM NERN NM NWD PAST BLACK HILLS.  GREATEST
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED UPSLOPE SHOULD BE FROM
VICINITY CO/NM BORDER REGION NWD ACROSS CO.  STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
OF HIGHER TERRAIN -- SUCH AS RTN/PALMER/CYS RIDGES AND OF ERN FRONT
OF MOUNTAINS -- SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY WILL BE IN PROFILE OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS BUT MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER FLOWS. EXPECT
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGHOUT WRN PART OF THIS
OUTLOOK CORRIDOR...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS DURING EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY CONGEAL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY..OR IN SITU AFTER DARK.  PRIND MOST PROBABLE AREA
FOR DAMAGING MCS DEVELOPMENT IS FROM ERN CO/NERN NM ACROSS WRN KS OR
PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES.

..EDWARDS.. 07/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.