[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021726
SWODY2
SPC AC 021725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
RRT 45 W RHI 25 ESE CWA 40 S OSH 15 W CGX 35 ENE BMI COU 10 SE CNU
50 WSW END 35 NW CSM 35 N AMA 10 NW TAD COS FCL 55 ESE CYS 25 SW IML
15 SW MCK 20 SSE HSI 15 ENE OLU 40 N RWF 15 NW AXN 15 NW TVF 35 SSE
RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ANJ OSC 35 E LAF
25 S MTO 10 WSW TBN 40 SW JLN SPS LBB CVS 15 NE ALS EGE VEL SLC TWF
SUN BTM 20 ESE 3HT 40 NW 4BQ 50 NW PHP 20 SSE MBG 60 SW JMS 55 NE
BIS 75 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP VCT LFK 15
NNW ESF GWO BNA 25 NNW LEX 25 NE DAY 30 NNW MFD 10 SW ERI JHW 15 NE
DUJ 20 SW AOO 20 ENE EKN 10 SSE ROA 25 W DAN 10 NE RDU 15 ENE RWI 30
WSW ECG 25 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTION OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST SWWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS...WHILE A FLAT RIDGE EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AN
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SHOULD EXTEND
FROM MN SWWD INTO SWRN KS BY SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE
FEATURE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING
PEAK HEATING TIME.

...MN/IA TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...
GFS/NAM BOTH SUGGEST STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY BE PUSHING THROUGH ERN MN/WRN WI AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NWD INTO SRN ONTARIO WOULD
SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL NEED TIME TO DESTABILIZE...
DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...
AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM IA SWWD INTO
NEB. MID/HIGH LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN MN/WI AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THIS FEATURE PROVIDING STRONGEST FORCING IN
SRN ONTARIO AND SERN NEB/IA AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT FROM MN SWD INTO WRN IA/SERN NEB AS DAYTIME HEATING
LIFTS WEAK CAP IN MN ...WHILE STRONGER FORCING IN SERN NEB/IA AIDS
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION. ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY PLUS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS SHOW
STRONG CURATIVE IN THE LOWER 3 KM...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE/ LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATES NUMEROUS STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN NEB AND IA...WITH
THE GREATEST INITIAL THREAT LIKELY TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL. ONCE THE
DOWNDRAFTS CONGEAL...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS A
DAMAGING WIND MCS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...IL AND NRN
MO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS AN
UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON THE DAY 1
OUTLOOKS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS STRONG HEATING AND MASS CONVERGENCE AID IN WEAKENING A
STRONG CAP. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A
RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE
SLOWLY SWD DURING THE EVENING ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS.

STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ERN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ELY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDES LIFT AND ADVECTS DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WWD. VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED. WITH WLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS ERN CO...BUT SHOULD TURN SEWD INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET OVER TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK
SUNDAY NIGHT.

...OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW IS WEAK FROM THE SURFACE TO 500
MB...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT
RISK IS POSSIBLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS...IF MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BE IDENTIFIED.

..IMY.. 07/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.