[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 020745
SWODY2
SPC AC 020744

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
DEN 50 SSW HSI LNK OTG AXN BJI 50 SSW INL DLH CWA JVL MMO BMI SPI
JEF TUL GAG CAO TAD 40 NE DEN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E CRP VCT LFK GGG
PRX DUA SPS LBB CVS TCC 25 W RTN 55 W COS EGE VEL SLC TWF SUN BTM
LWT MLS 55 SSE Y22 50 NW ABR JMS 70 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NNE APN MBS
HUF MDH ARG LIT PBF GLH GWO TUP LBE AOO HGR SHD LYH DAN RDU GSB 40
WSW ECG 50 E ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
PERIOD...MAIN FEATURE OF RELEVANCE BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN BC.  THIS FEATURE IS
FCST TO MOVE ESEWD THEN EWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL CANADA...AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...DURING DAY-1
PERIOD...REACHING SERN SASK AND DAKOTAS BY APPROXIMATELY 04/00Z. 
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE FROM ERN DAKOTAS/WRN
NEB/NERN CO EARLY IN PERIOD...EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND
PORTIONS LS REGION.  FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND STALL ACROSS
PORTIONS IA/NWRN KS/ERN CO.  DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM JUST E OF
TX/NM BORDER NWD ACROSS SRN CO/KS BORDER REGION ...THEN INTERSECT
FRONT...DURING LATE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON
INVOF FRONT...IN AN ARC FROM MN ACROSS WRN IA/SWRN NEB...WSWWD TO
ERN CO.

...MN/IA TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE FCST TO EXTEND FROM ABOUT SWRN
IA/SERN NEB NWD...WHILE STRONGEST MOISTURE RECOVERY AND DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM ABOUT SRN MN SWD...AHEAD OF FRONT.
 DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND BOWS OVER THAT CORRIDOR...AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH.

STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE OVER PORTIONS WRN IA/NWRN MO/SERN
NEB AREA...S OF REGION WHERE CANADIAN SFC CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED
ISALLOBARIC FORCING VEER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  WEAKER AND
POTENTIALLY BACKED SFC WINDS OVER THIS AREA YIELD LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS IN FCST SOUNDINGS.  COMBINATION OF ADVECTIVE AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD BOOST SFC DEW POINTS INTO MID
60S - MID 70S F RANGE DURING AFTERNOON OVER IA/NEB BORDER
REGION...WHERE GREATEST CAPE AND MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATIONS OF
SHEAR AND BUOYANCY ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  ALL
MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE.  MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND
MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS IA AND/OR NRN MO...MAINTAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL
AFTER DARK.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BOTH
1. ALONG FRONT OVER PORTIONS KS WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING AND FRONTAL
LIFT HAVE LARGEST CHANCE TO BREAK CAP AND
2. IN ERN CO WHERE LOW LEVEL ELY COMPONENT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
UPSLOPE.

STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY ACROSS CO/KS NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR.
 MOISTURE AND CAPPING EACH WILL BE STRONGER OVER KS...MAKING
AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL BUT ALSO MORE POTENTIALLY
EXPLOSIVE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS LIKELY FROM ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS. AS OFTEN IS TRUE IN SIMILAR
PATTERNS...MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AMIDST WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT
OVER ERN CO...AND A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ANTICIPATED.  ONE OR TWO
NOCTURNAL COMPLEXES MAY DEVELOP IN SITU OR FROM AFTERNOON
TSTMS...MOVING SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD KS/OK BORDER REGION WITH SOME
SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT.

...SERN CONUS...
RESIDUAL SEGMENTS OF FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG SFC HEATING AND RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY EARLY-MIDDLE
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY FORM MULTICELL CLUSTERS. BOTH
PULSE/MULTICELL SEVERE MODES ARE POSSIBLE WITH WET DOWNBURSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EACH POSSIBLE.  VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FCST..AND MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL STRONGLY DEPEND ON MESOBETA SCALE PROCESSES
UNDEFINABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO
DISORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 07/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.