[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 290608
SWODY2
SPC AC 290606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 30 SSW HOB
20 W ROW 20 ENE TCS 45 SSW SAD 55 SSE GBN YUM 25 NE TRM 45 W DRA 65
ENE TPH 45 SSW ENV SLC 35 N VEL 50 ENE CAG 25 N COS 25 S LHX 15 E
DHT 35 NNE PVW 50 NNW ABI 20 N ACT 55 ENE CLL 30 SSE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE GPT 55 NNE MOB
45 SSW CBM TUP 50 NNW MSL 40 S BNA 10 NW AND 35 SSW CLT 25 NE SOP 25
SE RWI 40 ENE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 30 N PIE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN U.S...

SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO AZ
WILL EJECT EWD AT A SLOWER PACE.  RESULTANT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER TX WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO BUILD
SWD WITH OVERALL HIGHER PRESSURES THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS.  AS A
RESULT...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TX...AND THAT MAY PROVE TO BE ISOLATED
...FOCUSED EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPSTREAM...CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WHERE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALLOW SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO REACH CRITICAL CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF
LIGHTNING GENERATION.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN ROCKIES.

...SERN U.S...

MOISTENING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN INCREASINGLY VEERED DEEP
LAYER FLOW MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN ELEVATED
FASHION AS POLAR AIRMASS WEDGED EAST/SOUTH OF MOUNTAINS BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW WITH TIME.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY FOR
NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
SERN GA LATE.  EVEN SO IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL PROVE INADEQUATE
TO WARRANT A SEVERE THREAT DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

..DARROW.. 01/29/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.