[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 291707
SWODY2
SPC AC 291705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E ORL 15 NW SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AQQ 15 WNW VLD
40 NNE SAV 15 NE FLO 40 N RWI 25 SSE RIC WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 30 SSW HOB
25 SW ROW 35 NNW TCS 55 W SOW 20 N PRC 25 WSW GCN 30 W PGA 20 SE 4HV
15 ESE GJT 15 SW COS 15 WNW LTS 45 SW PRX 45 ESE SHV 15 E ESF 45 N
LFT LFT 15 SSW 7R4.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A CLOSED-OFF UPPER-LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AND
RETROGRADE SWWD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN STATES.
AT LOW-LEVELS...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F LIKELY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NERN MEXICO SHOULD
RESULT IN BACKED SFC WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TX...CREATING STRONG VEERING
WINDS BELOW 700 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AS SHOWN ON
THE DAY 2 KCRP 22Z FORECAST SOUNDING...SUGGESTS AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE LOWER TX
COAST. THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH THE ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE LACK OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED. IF CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH ALONG THE FRONT...AND
STORMS DO INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AN ISOLATED
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST IN THE DAY 2
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWRN UPPER-LOW WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVER WEST TX AND THE SRN ROCKIES ON DAY 2. HOWEVER...LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 01/29/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.