[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250615
SWODY2
SPC AC 250614

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW OTH 40 E ACV
40 SE RBL 45 ENE MER 55 S BIH 40 S DRA 40 SSE IGM 35 S PRC 65 ENE
PHX 25 NNW SAD 35 WNW SVC 25 ENE SVC 45 NNW ELP 20 NNE ELP 60 SE
ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG ZONAL JET OVER THE NERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING
SLOWLY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE MAIN JET CORE
WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CA AND THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN GRADUAL AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. BY EARLY THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
RESEMBLE A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS AS A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND STRONG
DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE PERSISTS BETWEEN CNTRL U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP NRN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST.

...CA...
IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM WEST OF SFO WILL LIFT NNEWD
ACROSS THE ORE/WA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH
ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG THE CA COAST. STRONGER
UPSTREAM SYSTEM AROUND 140W WILL MOVE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AIDED BY
DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
POST-FRONTAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE COAST
RANGES AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS.
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET
SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN CA ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
SPREADS ATOP HIGHER THETAE AIRMASS IN THE LOW THROUGH MID
LEVELS...RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT LIFT SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX...INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

..CARBIN.. 01/25/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.