[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241709
SWODY2
SPC AC 241708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST MON JAN 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LAX 30 W BFL
SJC 35 ESE UKI RBL 30 E RBL 45 W TVL 30 WSW BIH NID DAG RAL 35 SSE
LGB 15 WSW LAX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN
NORTH AMERICA AND RIDGE OVER W...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD
BREAKDOWN OF WRN RIDGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD.  LONG-LIVED UPPER
LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN AZ -- IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD THEN EWD THROUGH SRN ROCKIES DAY-1...THEN
MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND AL/GA DAY-2 AS OPEN
WAVE TROUGH.  HIGHEST AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE UNTIL DAY-3 PERIOD...BUT SEVERAL MINOR PERTURBATIONS SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS CA COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW.

...CA CENTRAL VALLEY TO L.A. BASIN...
TSTM POTENTIAL MARGINAL FOR GEN THUNDER FCST...WITH GREATEST
PROBABILITIES BEING 25/18-26/00Z TIME FRAME.  PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
WAA REGIME -- BENEATH SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW -- WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS ACROSS REGION.  MEAN
LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC WITH MUCAPES
REMAINING BELOW 100 J/KG...EXCEPT FOR MUCH OF AFTERNOON.  DIABATIC
SFC HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD WARM LOWER
LEVELS OF SOUNDINGS ENOUGH TO YIELD 150-300 J/KG MUCAPE...AMIDST
LITTLE CINH.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE WEAK OUTSIDE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AREAS...ISOLATED/EPISODIC TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE.

...SERN CONUS...
SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL RESULT IN SWATH OF STRONG
MIDLEVEL DPVA IN ITS PATH...FROM CENTRAL OK EARLY IN PERIOD ESEWD
ACROSS TN AND CENTRAL/NRN GA BY 26/12Z.  STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA
WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER S AND SE...OVER GULF COASTAL PLAIN OF
LA/MS/AL.  MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS IN BOTH CORRIDORS SUGGEST LAPSE
RATES MAY STEEPEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. 
HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TOO WEAK FOR MORE THAN VERY
BRIEF/ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL. ATTM PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO
SMALL/CONDITIONAL FOR GEN THUNDER AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 01/24/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.