[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 240539
SWODY2
SPC AC 240538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHTS WITHIN PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS WILL FALL THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF STRONG TROUGHS MOVE INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND
ACROSS CA. CUTOFF LOW AHEAD OF THESE PACIFIC DISTURBANCES...
CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA...WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE
DOWNSTREAM TO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. THIS SAME
IMPULSE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING TUESDAY.

WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO
THE EAST. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD
FROM ONTARIO TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON DAY TWO...AND ACT TO
REINFORCE THE COLD/STABLE AIR MASS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH...
MIDWEST...AND EAST.

WHILE TSTM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD...VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WITH THE EJECTING
IMPULSE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CA.

...CA...
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/SHOWERS AS
HEIGHTS FALL AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES FROM THE NRN CA COAST
ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL VALLEY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP
LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7C/KM...COUPLED WITH
MODEST 2M DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F...MAY SUPPORT MUCAPE AS HIGH
AS 250 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...COULD PROMOTE
SCATTERED TSTMS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD LAYER RESULTS IN
MARGINAL EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF -12C TO -18C. WITH
CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING GENERATION DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE IN
THIS FCST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A TSTM OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE
ISSUED ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 01/24/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.