[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210538
SWODY2
SPC AC 210536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST THU JAN 20 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 65 WSW MIA
...CONT... 25 S LCH POE 40 NNE MLU 35 WSW UOX 35 WNW MSL 55 NNE HSV
25 ENE CHA 45 SW AVL 15 ENE SPA 30 SW SOP 15 ENE GSB 25 ESE ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST NCEP MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COMPOSITE OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...CURRENTLY IN FORMATIVE STAGES OF
INTENSIFICATION/PHASING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN CANADA...WILL
EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...BAJA CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTS ACROSS CA AND THE GREAT BASIN...AND RETURNS NWD OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST.

AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRANSITIONS FROM OH VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST DURING SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECEEDING THE
FRONT...FROM LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

...NCNTRL GULF COAST AREA...
WHILE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FCST TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION...MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON WSWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S F...COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND
70F...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 200-600 J/KG BASED ON A COMPROMISE
OF ETA/ETAKF FCST SOUNDINGS. WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
ABOUT 50KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR STRENGTHENING COINCIDENT WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY AS
DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 01/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.