[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201706
SWODY2
SPC AC 201705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 40 SSE PHX
50 N SAD 15 WNW TCS 40 NE ELP 45 W MRF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN AZ THROUGH SRN NM INTO FAR W TX...

THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY
ENEWD THROUGH FRIDAY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL
CAPE...MAINLY FROM SRN AZ INTO SWRN NM. A FEW SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN SOME HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
OCCUR.

...WRN TN THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY...

WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.
WITH AIR OVER THE GULF STILL IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFICATION AND
EXPECTED WSWLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...ONLY MODEST RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FROM KY NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN TN/KY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WLY IN RESPONSE TO SEWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...GIVEN ONLY
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND EXPECTED STRONGER LIFT TO
REMAIN NE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.