[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211734
SWODY2
SPC AC 211732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH POE 40 NNE
MLU 20 N UOX 50 E MKL 45 ESE BWG 35 ESE LEX 30 NE JKL 20 S 5I3 25
WSW TRI 10 SE AVL 25 WSW CLT SOP 10 SSE RWI 25 NNE ECG ...CONT... 20
N VRB 65 WSW MIA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ON SATURDAY AS IT
TRACKS ESEWD TO THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH WLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KT. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS LOW WILL TRACK
ENEWD TOWARD SRN PA/WV WITH A SECONDARY LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO SERN STATES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL BAJA CA.  


...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND ALONG
THE TX/LA COAST.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK TO SLY DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...AIDING IN FURTHER MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS THIS TROUGH
TRACKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND THE
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE GULF COAST STATES...
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER ACROSS THIS AREA ADVECTING A NARROW
MOIST AXIS EWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  WEAK LAPSE RATES ATOP THE
MOIST AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AVAILABILITY OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 200-600
J/KG.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITHIN WAA
REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE GREATER
LIKELIHOOD FOR ELEVATED STORMS BEGINNING AT OR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. 
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
GULF COAST STATES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE WEAK
INSTABILITY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS...WEAK
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONGER
STORMS.  UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS WITH 40-50 KT POSSIBLE
AT 850 MB SHOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED AT THIS TIME FOR GREATER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 01/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.