[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200604
SWODY2
SPC AC 200603

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MVN BMG LUK JKL LOZ
TUP GWO GLH PBF LIT UNO MVN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN SAD ALM GDP
MRF 55 SSW P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WRN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH. 
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SRN STREAM AND OVER ERN STATES.  NERN PACIFIC
TROUGH -- NOW APCHG WA/ORE COAST -- IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH MEAN
RIDGE POSITION LATTER HALF DAY-1...THEN TURN SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS AND AMPLIFY DAY-2.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD PHASE/MERGE WITH NRN
STREAM TROUGH NOW BREACHING NRN EXTENT OF MEAN RIDGE OVER WRN NW
TERRITORIES OF CANADA. COMBINED TROUGH WILL THEN DIG
SEWD...FOLLOWING ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID
MS VALLEY.  COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS WHILE SFC WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN
REGION AND LIFTS NWD.

MEANWHILE...CUT-OFF LOW NOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER PACIFIC...CENTERED W OF BAJA SPUR.  AS IS TYPICAL WITH
CUT-OFF/SLOW-MOVING SRN STREAM SYSTEMS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS PERTURBATION
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM FLOW FIELD...WITH
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN SREF GUIDANCE.  LATEST MODELS INDICATE ONLY
SMALL SEGMENT OF ASSOCIATED VORTICITY FIELD WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO
PREVAILING NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...WHILE MOST OF UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER MEX BORDERLANDS AND EJECTS A FEW DAYS LATER.  THEREFORE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE OVER MID/UPPER MS AND OH
VALLEYS ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW TROUGH.

...AR TO LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP FROM MS DELTA REGION NEWD
ACROSS TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGHOUT PERIOD...IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING
NRN STREAM PERTURBATION.  IN LOW LEVELS...UPSTREAM GULF AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY THROUGH PERIOD WITH MARGINAL BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE CONTENT. BY LAST 6-9 HOURS OF PERIOD...EXPECT SOME ELEVATED
MUCAPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA -- PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND
500 J/KG IN SWRN PORTIONS AND DECREASING NEWD. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT - AND ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC WARM FROM -- AS
ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED PARCELS REACH LFC AMIDST WEAKENING CINH ALOFT.
 PRIND BUOYANCY AND MOISTURE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER 22/12Z.

...MEX BORDERLANDS -- BIG BEND TO AZ...
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/COOLING -- VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH
DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE --
SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED CB DEVELOPMENT DURING AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OVER MEX...A FEW BRIEF TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM BIG BEND MOUNTAINS WNWWD TOWARD SERN AZ.

..EDWARDS.. 01/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.