[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040557
SWODY2
SPC AC 040556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 25 ENE ABI
40 SSW LTS 25 WNW CSM 25 NNW END 45 NE SZL 20 SE LAF 35 SE MIE 40
ENE SDF 55 NE MKL 50 S GLH 30 NNW ESF 40 WSW LFK 30 WNW TPL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN CA...IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES AREA AT THE START
OF DAY 2 AS AN OPEN WAVE.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD
TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT
100 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM SRN NM TO THE OH VALLEY. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE OZARKS WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG A FRONT... WHILE THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER TN/MS VALLEYS AND
MUCH OF TX.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOIST WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
MINIMIZE THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 2 NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN TX
TO SERN KS/SRN MO.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET.  LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN MINIMAL INHIBITION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS NERN TX TO SRN IL THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.

A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL/STEEP
LAPSE RATES SPREAD OVER THIS AREA.  HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...PRECLUDING INCLUSION INTO GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 01/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.