[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031700
SWODY2
SPC AC 031659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA DAG 45 NNW EED
BCE PUC EGE COS GCK EMP STL BMG DAY PKB CRW BNA PBF TYR SJT 65 WNW
MRF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OK/TX...
ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW THAT LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL
BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES ON
TUESDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NM/WEST TX BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS KS INTO NORTHERN OK.  AIR MASS SOUTH OF FRONT AND
IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW...OVER WESTERN OK AND WEST/NORTHWEST TX...WILL
SEE SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.  RELATIVELY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN
POCKETS OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER WEST TX AS STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT APPROACHES REGION.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN OK DURING THE EVENING.  KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR AGAINST ISSUING A SLIGHT RISK AT
THIS TIME IS LIMITED INSTABILITY.

..HART.. 01/03/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.