[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030658
SWODY2
SPC AC 030657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MRY 30 SSE PRB
35 SSE BFL 25 NNW DAG 40 SE LAS 35 SE SGU 25 NNE U17 15 N TAD 50 SSW
HLC 30 SE CNK 50 S P35 30 S SPI BMG 20 SSE SDF 40 NW CSV 25 SSW PBF
40 NNE GGG 20 N HDO DRT ...CONT... 35 S P07 25 NE MRF 70 WNW MRF 15
WNW ELP 15 ESE DMN 55 NNE DUG 30 SW FHU.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF CA...AS IT WEAKENS
INTO AN OPEN WAVE ON TUESDAY AND MOVES ENEWD FROM SRN CA TO CO/NRN
NM BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE OPEN WAVE WILL
BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.  AT
THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM FAR SRN MO
SWWD TO SWRN OK...AND THEN WNWWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE TO SERN CO.
 A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND N-S ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER...
WITH THIS BOUNDARY MOVING EWD TUESDAY EVENING AND EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SPS-BGS-MRF BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  

...FAR ERN NM/WRN TX INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE/WRN OK...
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SSELY SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH OF TX. 
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WWD TO THE TROUGH ALONG
THE NM/TX BORDER...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR.  AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE DAY 2
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH WAA PER BROAD LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN TX. 
MODELS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WRN TX RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING FOR WEAK
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SLY
LLJ ACROSS TX INTO SRN KS WITH MID-LEVEL SWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 60
KT OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN AS A STRONG 90-100 KT JET NOSES INTO WRN
TX BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE N-S SURFACE TROUGH...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND REPORTS...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  HOWEVER...LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS.

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS
OK INTO FAR SRN MO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS.

..PETERS.. 01/03/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.