[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021735
SWODY2
SPC AC 021733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DRT INK 20 ENE
ROW 35 NW TCC 50 S LAA 40 NW GCK 30 WSW STJ 45 NE UIN 15 NE DNV 25
NE DAY 15 N PKB 15 SSW CRW 35 E BNA 15 SE LIT 25 ENE GGG 15 NE TPL
30 NNW HDO 35 NNW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UKI 10 ENE SJC
25 SW FAT 20 NNE EDW 35 N EED 35 NNW PRC 25 SSE FLG 65 ENE PHX 15
WNW TUS 65 SW TUS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OFF ORE COAST WILL DROP SWD OFF THE CA WEST COAST ON
MONDAY.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE LOW
AND THEN EJECT EWD INTO THE DESERTS.  ONE SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH
SRN CA AND NRN BAJA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL
JETLETS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO AND THEN WEAKEN ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM THE TX PNHDL EWD TO THE OH VLY.

...SRN CA...
MID-TROPOSPHERE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LOW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BANDS OF STRONGER TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY FROM THE LA BASIN SWD.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN/CNTRL BAJA AND THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK.  AS A RESULT...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...THOUGH OFFSHORE WATERSPOUTS MAY
OCCUR. 

...SRN PLAINS...
DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH SHORT TERM MODEL SPREADS RATHER LARGE WITH
RESPECT TO QPF.  MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF THE E-W
FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. 
MORNING TSTMS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE NEWD AND WEAKEN AS LLJ VEERS/
WEAKENS.  DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIED WITH POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  GIVEN MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
PRESENCE OF WARM MID-TROPOSPHERE...RISKS FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION SEEM RATHER LOW.  MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR TSTMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
PIN-POINTING AN EXACT AREA IS CHALLENGING GIVEN SPREAD IN MODELS. 
ATTM...BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE FROM NRN OK NEWD TOWARD THE OH VLY. 
GIVEN MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW
THREATS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK.  ANY
MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD NOT SPREAD EWD FROM THE
CA SYSTEM UNTIL TUESDAY.

..RACY.. 01/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.