[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 020653
SWODY2
SPC AC 020653

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 INK 20 ENE
ROW 35 NW TCC 50 S LAA 40 NW GCK 30 WSW STJ 45 NE UIN 15 NE DNV 25
NE DAY 15 N PKB 15 SSW CRW 35 E BNA 40 NE ELD TYR 25 ENE SAT 40 S
LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UKI 10 ENE SJC
25 SW FAT 20 NNE EDW 35 N EED 35 NNW PRC 25 SSE FLG 65 ENE PHX 15
WNW TUS 65 SW TUS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE OREGON COAST...WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SSEWD ALONG THE CA COAST ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
INLAND ACROSS SRN CA MONDAY EVENING...AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM OVER
WRN CANADA AND THE PAC NW.  50-60 KT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS AND OH VALLEY/NERN STATES WILL BE
MAINTAINED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW AND A FLAT RIDGE FROM
SRN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMANATING FROM THE ERN AND SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE NEWD WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

...WRN TX NEWD ACROSS OK...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
WEST OF NRN BAJA AT 30N 125W PER WV IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
NM AT THE START OF DAY 2 BEFORE SHEARING NEWD ACROSS KS TO LOWER MO
VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED JUST W OF
CENTRAL BAJA IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH THE
ETA/GFS DIFFERING IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONT.
 GFS INDICATED THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2... BEFORE RETREATING NWD MONDAY
NIGHT. THE ETA SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
FROM SRN MO INTO CENTRAL/NRN OK.

SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY WITH MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK BY MONDAY EVENING.  DESPITE MODEST
LAPSE RATES THROUGH 04/00Z...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MUCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF NRN TX INTO OK.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
UPPER FORCING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL
ACROSS NRN TX INTO WRN OK DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  HOWEVER...IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES WOULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

A GREATER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY
EVENING OVER WRN TX AND CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT INTO OK AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SSWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS.  STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN WEAK
TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR AN ATTENDANT HAIL THREAT. 
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE
WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS SURFACE FEATURES CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED.

...SRN CA EWD TO AZ...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ALONG AND OFFSHORE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SRN CA. A FEW WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN 40 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO
THIS AREA AT 12Z MONDAY...BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.  THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER AZ BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE WITHIN EXIT
REGION OF 80+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY OVER SRN CA AS THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL /-28 TO -30C AT 500
MB/ MOVES INLAND LATER IN THE DAY.

..PETERS.. 01/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.