[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011710
SWODY2
SPC AC 011708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE FHU SAD ABQ 10
SE TCC 10 SSE AMA P28 OJC IRK 10 SSE JVL 45 ENE MKE 30 SW MBS 10 NE
ARB 35 NNW MFD LUK OWB GLH 30 ESE BPT ...CONT... 20 SE CRP SAT JCT
30 SSE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW OTH ACV 35 NNW
SFO SMX LGB 10 SSE SAN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIG SWD
TOWARD COASTAL CA ON SUNDAY.  AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCES OFF THE SRN BAJA COAST WILL PHASE WITH NRN STREAM
IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THE LOW.  ONE SUCH JETLET WILL REACH THE SRN
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY BY
MONDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER LOW VCNTY CA COAST
WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE THREATS AS THE NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND
COMES TO A CLOSE.

...SRN PLAINS TO THE LWR OH VLY...
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MOIST ALONG/S OF THE
POLAR FRONT THAT SHOULD BE QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NWRN OK-SERN KS-OH
VLY LINE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTENANCE OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPLY A WARM MID-TROPOSPHERE...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING SURFACE
BASED PARCELS MOST OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

AS THE SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES NEWD INTO THE REGION
INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM PROBABILITIES FROM NCNTRL TX NEWD INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IF HEATING IS SUFFICIENT...
STORMS MAY BE ROOTED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE.  BUT...THE GREATER THREAT
WILL BE FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD INTO THE OZARKS
AND LWR OH VLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
LLJ.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER...OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND THE
FACT THAT THE DISTURBANCE/UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
 AS SUCH...THREATS FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
TSTMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE CORN BELT/MID-MO VLY TODAY MAY BE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY SUNDAY.  THE
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS BOTH HEIGHT FALLS AND THE LLJ BEGIN TO
TRANSLATE EWD BY MID-DAY.

...COASTAL CA...
MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION...LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...WILL
MOVE ONSHORE CA...WITH THE HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW CORE.  CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL SPREAD SWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS/
SANTA BARBARA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

..RACY.. 01/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.