[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 010624
SWODY2
SPC AC 010623

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE FHU SAD ABQ 10
SE TCC 10 SSE AMA P28 OJC IRK 10 SSE JVL 45 ENE MKE AZO ARB 35 NNW
MFD LUK OWB GLH 35 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 20 SE CRP SAT JCT 30 SSE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW OTH ACV 35 NNW
SFO SMX LGB 10 SSE SAN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WITHIN BROADER SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC/
WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
POLAR WESTERLIES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  MODELS SUGGEST
THIS CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL GRADUALLY
DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD BASE OF TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS OCCURS...A COUPLE OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ONE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES...THE OTHER ACROSS BAJA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES. 
TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR BOTH FEATURES TO WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT AND
INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN
AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
STATES.  HOWEVER...INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

CIRCULATION AROUND SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 
DESPITE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WEAK LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR MASS ON WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TEND TO LIMIT CAPE.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
MINIMIZE RISK FOR VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT
LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST
OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

...MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS ALREADY EMANATED FROM WESTERN TROUGH HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO INTRUSION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES.  ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND CONTRIBUTES TO EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS WAVE
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN AND FORCING MAY
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...NEAR WAVE AND AHEAD OF TRAILING SURFACE FRONT. 
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTH/EAST AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS AND RAPIDLY
ACCELERATES INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

...WRN GULF COAST INTO SRN PLAINS/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH SURFACE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE...BUT TREND SHOULD BE FOR THERMAL GRADIENT TO BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  BAROCLINIC ZONE ABOVE
SURFACE APPEARS LIKELY TO STALL NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO EXIST SOUTH OF THIS ZONE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
ARKLATEX REGION.  THIS IS ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
EMANATING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. 
CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PROGRESSION OF FEATURES WITHIN UPPER PATTERN CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
OZARKS.

..KERR.. 01/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.