[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 270637
SWODY2
SPC AC 270636

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FMY 20 SSE VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 30 E FAY 40 NNW
RWI 35 ESE RIC 15 W DOV EWR 20 NNW BID 15 E HYA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN / MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
MOVES NWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP TROUGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW CENTER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE LOW / FRONTAL POSITIONS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE NAM STILL THE FURTHEST W WITH THE LOW. 
MAIN EFFECT OF THESE DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL BE HOW LONG -- IF AT ALL -- THE FRONT REMAINS ONSHORE
OVER THE FL PENINSULA...AND WHETHER ANY WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS CAN
SNEAK ONSHORE OVER COASTAL NC JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.

ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN THE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY OVER SRN FL...BUT
CONFINE IT TO EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  AS MENTIONED...THE
NAM IS FURTHEST N WITH ITS FRONTAL POSITION -- AND THUS SLOWEST TO
CLEAR THE BOUNDARY FROM THE SRN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA. 
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FORM OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS AS WELL AS NCEP SREF
OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY
AT THE LATEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY /
CONDITIONAL SEVERE FORECAST ACROSS THE EVERGLADES / SRN FL FOR EARLY
IN THE PERIOD.

VERY LOW PROBABILITY / CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS
FAR SERN VA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME ERN NC / THE OUTER BANKS
DURING THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.  AGAIN...MODELS DIFFER
WITH REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF LOW CENTER.  CONCENSUS FORECAST WOULD
PLACE THE LOW ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OR JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF
STREAM AT 28/12Z...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARM SECTOR FROM
WORKING ONSHORE.  IN THE EVENT THAT LOW WERE FURTHER INLAND...MOIST
/ MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER
BANKS / INTO COASTAL AREAS OF NC / SERN VA.  IN THIS
SCENARIO...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW ENOUGH ATTM TO
PRECLUDE ANY INTRODUCTION OF 5% PROBABILITY.

..GOSS.. 02/27/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.