[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 271740
SWODY2
SPC AC 271739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CRE 35 N FLO
25 N SOP 35 ESE RIC 15 W DOV EWR 20 NNW BID 15 E HYA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FMY 20 SSE VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BLI 20 NNE EAT
45 SSW GEG 30 E BOI 40 NW OWY 65 WSW BNO 15 ESE MFR 60 S EKA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL STATES...AMPLIFIES SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY TO SERN
STATES.  A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM ERN NC TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
DAY 2. THIS SCENARIO IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF...WHILE THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE WWD TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW.  THUS...TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF OVER SRN FL AT 28/12Z.

SPLIT FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES GIVEN A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF WRN NORTH AMERICA. 

...SRN FL...
AIR MASS OVER SRN FL IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BENEATH MODEST LAPSE RATES. 
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SSEWD MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW /40 KT AT 850 MB AND 50 KT
AT 700 MB/.  AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW A CATEGORICAL RISK...WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

...PAC NW...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD
WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD INTO THE RIDGE...WITH AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST BY 01/12Z. COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-26 C AT 500 MB/ WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE PAC NW ON MONDAY.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER THIS REGION AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT SPREADS NEWD.

..PETERS.. 02/27/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.