[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 261751
SWODY2
SPC AC 261749

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 10
NNW TLH 55 NW AYS 40 SE CAE 20 SW FAY 20 NW OAJ 30 SE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ONP 45 NNW MFR
10 S MHS 40 NNE MER 30 SSE MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 10 N HDO
30 NE P07 50 SE ELP ...CONT... 45 SW DMN 50 NNW TUS 40 SE PRC 30 W
ABQ 15 N LVS 25 ENE TCC 25 WSW GCK 50 NNW P28 40 NW TYR 10 NNE ESF
15 ENE GWO 45 NNW HSV 30 NNW TYS 20 NW AND 10 N CLT 25 ESE DAN 30 E
ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL INTO SERN GA AND
COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE WRN STATES AND NRN
STREAM COMBINED WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TX TODAY WILL
INTERACT TO SUPPORT TWO AREAS OF CONVECTIVE EPISODES ON DAY 2.../1/
ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND /2/ ACROSS SWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF
NRN/CENTRAL TX.  THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PHASE/INTERACT AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO GULF
COAST STATES AND A RIDGE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED IN THE WEST...AS A
PAC TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA TO THE PAC NW.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES THAN
WAS FORECAST WITH THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK.  THE NAM/ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW JUST
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SERN STATES...
AIR MASS ACROSS FL INTO THE FAR SERN STATES WILL MODIFY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD OVER FL WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 60S AND INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN FL. 
DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES THROUGH 00Z...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD NRN FL/SRN GA BY 00Z...AIDING IN THE
STRENGTHENING OF A SWLY LLJ TO 30-40 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
FL.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES STRONGER DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS
NEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  55-70 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
ATOP THE INCREASING LLJ WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SUPERCELLS
LIKELY.  MODELS SUGGEST A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS FL AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
RESULTING IN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.

IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...VERIFYING
WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FOR SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...THEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF GA TO NC.

...SWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NRN CA/NWRN NV...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SWRN OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX ON SUNDAY. 
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES ACROSS NWRN TX
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TOWARD THE TX COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG A COLD FRONT ALSO MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL STATES IN RELATION TO A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
OK INTO NWRN TX.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS.  THIS HAIL THREAT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD DURING
THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY REACH THE TX COAST BY 12Z MONDAY.

..PETERS.. 02/26/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.