[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 260704
SWODY2
SPC AC 260703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
GPT 15 NNE GPT 30 NNW CEW 10 ENE AYS 40 ENE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW DMN 50 NNW TUS
40 SE PRC 30 W ABQ 15 N LVS 25 ENE TCC 15 SE GAG 25 SSW END 15 NE
LFK 15 ESE ESF 15 E GWO 30 N HSV 30 NNW TYS AHN 40 ESE CLT 35 NNW
RWI 40 SW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE GLS 40 S CLL 25
ESE FST 45 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EUG 45 SSW MFR
65 SE RBL 20 NNW SCK 25 NW SFO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF
COAST / FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN...WHICH
SHOULD FEATURE A MERGING / INTERACTION OF WRN U.S. LOW / TROUGH AND
STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD INTERACT
OVER THE PLAINS / MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD...AS WRN FEATURES MOVE E AND
NRN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SSEWD. THE RESULT WILL BE A
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD...WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE W
COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...AND A RIDGE JUST OFF THE E COAST.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARILY
WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEPENING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. NAM FORECASTS A LOW INITIALLY OVER
SWRN LA...WHICH THEN DEEPENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD WITH TIME WHILE
REMAINING W OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...GFS
PLACES A WEAKER LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF INITIALLY...AND THEN
MOVES IT ENEWD ACROSS NRN FL AND THEN UP THE SERN U.S. / CAROLINA
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF IS DIFFERENT YET...WITH
LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SERN GULF...ACROSS SRN FL BY SUNSET...AND
THEN WELL OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ATTM...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...WITH LOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INITIALLY ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF.  WIDESPREAD / WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXIST E / NE OF THIS LOW...KEEPING EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE NRN GULF OR PERHAPS JUST ONSHORE.  IN THIS SCENARIO...LOW WOULD
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS NRN FL...AND THEN UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...THE SOUTHEAST...
BASED ON ABOVE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW...MOIST / POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS FL...BENEATH BROAD ZONE OF 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW.  INITIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST WITH WARM FRONT
AS IT MOVES NWD ACROSS FL / INTO THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  AS INITIAL CONVECTION MOVES NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH /
OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SECOND EPISODE
OF SEVERE THREAT ALONG COLD FRONT -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS FL DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. 

STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND LIKELIHOOD OF 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING
ACROSS FL / THE GULF COAST REGION SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. ATTM...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH SEVERE PROBABILITIES
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT INCONSISTENCIES IN MODEL DEPICTION OF SURFACE /
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THIS REGION.

...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL TX...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS PARTS OF NRN / CENTRAL TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS COLD AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS A DIURNALLY HEATED BUT
MARGINALLY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  

STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION BY
MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS ENHANCED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS.  THOUGH STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD TOWARD THE COAST...STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

..GOSS.. 02/26/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.