[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 251735
SWODY2
SPC AC 251734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LRD 45 SE SAT
30 SSE LFK 15 WNW BTR 20 NNW BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 15 W BLH 55
NNW NID 65 NW BIH 25 ESE U31 10 SE ENV 45 ENE VEL 20 NE FCL 15 NE
AKO 40 ESE TAD 40 SW CVS 35 SW HOB 30 SSE P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
REX BLOCK OVER THE WRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ON
SATURDAY AS THE BROAD SOUTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH
RETROGRADES WWD TOWARD THE PAC NW.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN SRN
STREAM FLOW AND CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL TRACK FROM NWRN
MEXICO TO THE UPPER TX COAST/ARKLATEX REGION ON SATURDAY.

...COASTAL TX TO LA...
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL KEYS EARLY IN THE DAY 2
PERIOD.  THE WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE SWRN GULF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD AS SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
EARLY SATURDAY OVER NERN MEXICO /TO THE S OF BRO/...WITH THIS LOW
TRACKING NEWD ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD SWRN LA BY 12Z SUNDAY.

STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE WRN GULF. HOWEVER...WEAKER AND
MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER DEEP S
TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE LA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. 
DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH ASCENT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE SWRN STATES.  WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SMALL HAIL REPORTS.

..PETERS.. 02/25/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.