[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241720
SWODY2
SPC AC 241719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 25 E JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW VBG 45 E MRY 50
N FAT 60 WNW DRA 15 NNW SGU 70 N INW 35 SSW GUP 35 E SAD 45 WSW FHU.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
REX BLOCK IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A NERN
PACIFIC TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE ACROSS WRN CANADA AND WA/NRN ID. 
CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE SRN PART OF THE BLOCK IS PROGGED TO MOVE
NEWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  MEANWHILE...STRONG SRN STREAM
FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO FL...WITH ERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD.

...FL...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD FROM
CENTRAL TO SRN FL ON FRIDAY.  THE AIRMASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S...BUT
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FL PENINSULA.  ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SRN
STREAM FLOW WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
TEND TO LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW
WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SRN CA EWD INTO AZ. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FROM
SRN CA TO SRN AZ...WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A SMALL
HAIL THREAT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.  A FEW HAIL REPORTS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW TO ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 02/24/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.