[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200643
SWODY2
SPC AC 200642

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UKI 50 NNE MER
50 WNW NID 50 WSW EED 10 W PRC 25 ENE PHX 75 WSW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SSI 15 WNW MAI
25 E BTR 35 WNW LFT 15 WNW HOU 55 SE AUS 40 E TPL 25 WSW TYR 40 WSW
TXK 40 SE PGO 25 SE FYV 15 WSW HRO 35 ENE HRO 25 SSE CGI 40 ENE PAH
35 N SDF 30 WSW CMH 30 SSW HLG 20 S MGW 40 N SSU 10 SE SSU LYH 35
NNW RIC 15 ENE SBY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR VANCOUVER DROPS SWD SUNDAY...NEXT
IN A SERIES OF WAVES BREAKING OFF OF THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW WILL
EJECT EWD.  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE APPROACHING SRN CA EARLY
SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD REACH THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TN VLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY.  THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA IMPULSE WILL EVOLVE INTO A STRONG UPPER LOW AND
MOVE TO NEAR SRN CA BY LATE MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT REDEVELOPING NWD THROUGH TX AND THE
LOWER MS VLY WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM E TX INTO
PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH.  A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS AR SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH A DRYLINE SWWD INTO
ERN TX.

...LOWER MS VLY/MID-SOUTH...
CONVECTION/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID MS RIVER VLY ON
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS AND SRN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY.  STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ/WARM
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EWD.

ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT SLY FLOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT 60S DEW POINTS NWD FROM THE
WRN GULF BASIN.  AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MID-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WEAKLY CYCLONIC WITH H5
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID MINUS TEENS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VLY/MID-SOUTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WEAK WSWLY H85
FLOW...THERE COULD BE A PROPENSITY FOR EITHER THE ELEVATED MORNING
ACTIVITY TO BACKBUILD WWD TOWARD THE THETA-E AXIS...OR FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP VCNTY BOUNDARIES. OVERALL THREAT IS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/WARMING AHEAD OF THE NEW CA SYSTEM.

GIVEN TSTMS...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.  THE UNIDIRECTIONALITY OF THE FLOW
REGIME SUGGESTS THAT TSTM CLUSTERS COULD DEVELOP SMALL SCALE
LEWPS/BOWS GIVING WIND DAMAGE AS WELL AS BACKBUILD WWD WITH TIME.

OVERALL UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT/MASS CONVERGENCE WILL PRECLUDE A SLGT RISK...BUT WILL INCLUDE A
RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PROBABILISTIC HAIL AND WIND.

...SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VLY...
WAVES OF CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SRN CA AND DEVELOP
EWD TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VLY LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS
SWD.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL ENCOURAGE STORM ORGANIZATION.  ISOLD HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUST
OR A WATERSPOUT/TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..RACY.. 02/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.