[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210608
SWODY2
SPC AC 210607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N DAB 20 SW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SFO MER 25 E
BIH 35 NW ELY 50 N PUC 40 ENE GJT 30 E RTN 45 ENE GAG 40 NW HOT 30
SSE UOX 15 WNW AND 45 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW P07 25 SSE FST
35 NW HOB 60 N ROW 35 N 4CR 35 ENE TCS 45 SE DMN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT
CURRENTLY IS MOVING SWD OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 
DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET BOWING BACK NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX AND THE LOWER
MS VLY.  MEANWHILE...POLAR VORTEX WILL SINK SWD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THIS NRN STREAM FEATURE
AND THE SRN STREAM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY WITH THE COLD FRONT DRIVING SWD
INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES.  WWD EXTENT OF THIS FRONT...AND AN OLD
WARM FRONT...WILL MEANDER ACROSS CNTRL/NWRN TX THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES SWD INTO TX AND
THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...SRN CA TO SCNTRL AZ...
WARM CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA UPPER LOW SHOULD MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS ACROSS AZ EARLY TUESDAY AND PROBABLY STALL VCNTY NM BORDER
BY TUESDAY EVENING.  DEEP UVV ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 40-50 KT H5 JET
WRAPPING NEWD FROM BAJA/SONORA AND STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES WILL KEEP TSTM PROBABILITIES HIGH.  KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION. 
STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
CONVEYOR IN THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS WHERE POSSIBLE HEATING WILL
AUGMENT THERMAL BUOYANCY.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS THROUGH 8KM
SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.. ESPECIALLY IF HEATING
CAN OCCUR.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD
BE POSSIBLE.  AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...DETAILS /MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW/  ARE IN QUESTION.  ONCE
THESE DETAILS ARE RESOLVED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS...A CATEGORICAL SLGT
RISK MAY BE WARRANTED.

FARTHER W...CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT /MINUS 25C H5 TEMPERATURES/
WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CA.  HERE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN FARTHER S AND EAST.  BUT...GIVEN A COLD PROFILE...LOW-TOPPED
TSTMS COULD GIVE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR EVEN A WATERSPOUT/ISOLD
TORNADO.

...CNTRL/W TX...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...WILL GRADUALLY TURN UPSLOPE ACROSS
CNTRL/WRN TX AS THE CA SYSTEM DIGS TOWARD THE DESERT SW ON TUESDAY. 
THIS WILL ADVECT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWWD
PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE W TX S PLAINS AND SERN NM BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HEATING SHOULD BE STRONGEST ALONG/WEST OF
THE SUBTROPICAL CONVECTION/CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX. 
THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ANTICYCLONIC... GIVEN SUFFICIENT
HEATING...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE/HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WCNTRL TX LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EWD ALONG A FRONT
INTO CNTRL TX. GIVEN A TSTM...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND SUBTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE OR IF TSTMS WILL INDEED DEVELOP.  AS
SUCH...A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS NOT WARRANTED...BUT WILL INCLUDE
CONDITIONAL LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..RACY.. 02/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.