[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191724
SWODY2
SPC AC 191723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
COU 20 E UIN 25 N CMI 15 SSE IND 20 E SDF 40 E BWG 55 SSW CKV 25 NNE
MEM 50 SW ARG 30 WNW UNO 10 ESE COU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DRA 45 S SLC
30 SSE CAG 45 W ALS 25 WNW ABQ 50 SSE PHX 20 WSW GBN 30 NNW EED 40
ENE DRA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI 50 WSW FAT
PMD 45 S RAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N SJT 50 ESE SPS
20 WNW JLN 25 NE BIE 20 N OMA RFD 20 NW SBN 15 ENE CMH 15 N BLF 30
NE RMG 15 E ESF 35 NNE VCT 55 NNE DRT 50 WSW SJT 40 N SJT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS AND LOWER OH
VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NRN UT AND SRN CA ARE
FORECAST TO PHASE OVER THE PLAINS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST...PRIOR TO TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER NERN KS WILL DEVELOP
NEWD INTO NERN MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY NRN OH BY
MONDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
INTO SRN PLAINS.

...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY...
THOUGH MORNING MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE LOWER TX COAST AND DEEP S TX...INSPECTION OF
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWS RICHER MOISTURE BASED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
AS FAR N AS FTW AND SHV. SUSTAINED SWLY LLJ THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD
SHOULD ENHANCE THE NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MO AND SRN IL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /APPROACHING 8 C/KM/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW SWWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX...EVEN DESPITE THE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY WITHIN WAA REGION
ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ FROM PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER NERN MO AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT
INTO CNTRL IL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY.
WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS OF 1 KM OR
LESS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO THE WRN
TN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TSTMS DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
WITH SRN EXTENT.

...ARKLATEX...
WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN POINTS TO
THE N...BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THIS REGION IS
WHETHER SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE INITIATED. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE MASS FIELDS SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
GENERALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE FARTHER S. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM AREA.
HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS.

..MEAD.. 02/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.