[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190630
SWODY2
SPC AC 190629

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
HOT 50 NNE LIT 45 ENE PBF 45 S ELD 20 W LFK 25 NW CLL 40 NNW ACT 40
WSW PRX 45 NNW HOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N SJT 55 NW MWL 25
SSW JLN 35 ENE SZL 40 NW LAF 15 ENE CMH 15 N BLF 30 NE RMG 15 E ESF
35 NNE VCT 55 NNE DRT 50 WSW SJT 40 N SJT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN TX NEWD
INTO CNTRL/SRN AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT EWD
ACROSS THE DESERTS TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.  ONE SUCH WAVE WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE OH VLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE DESERTS/SRN ROCKIES
TO THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM NERN KS EARLY SUNDAY TO CNTRL IND BY SUNDAY EVENING. 
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO OK
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER OH VLY TO CNTRL TX.  THE
FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCI FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS.

...CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER OH VLY...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS
PENETRATED WELL S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUGGESTS THAT RETURN
FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL NOT BE OF HIGH QUALITY. MOREOVER...
LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE SRN STREAM WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO A
RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD...BUT WILL REINFORCE THE EML FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY.  NAM/NAMKF SOUNDINGS ARE PROBABLY
TOO UNSTABLE...WITH THE GFS SCENARIO PREFERRED.  STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED FROM CNTRL TX-ARKLATEX-MID
SOUTH/LOWER OH VLY WHERE MLCAPES WILL BE 500-1000 J/KG BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT WEAK LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY SUNDAY
EVENING.  GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK
CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE /PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/...IT IS CONCEIVABLE
THAT TSTMS COULD INITIATE IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL TX TO THE
ARKLATEX MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 50-55 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD
OCCUR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
STORMS...WITH POSSIBLE LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS MOVING INTO WRN/MID TN AND NWRN MS LATER AT NIGHT.

FARTHER N...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY A 
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VLY...PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN FARTHER SW...PRESENCE OF WSWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME AOA 50 KTS WILL FAVOR AN ISOLD POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..RACY.. 02/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.