[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181721
SWODY2
SPC AC 181720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CEC 45 N MER 30 ENE
FAT 70 NNE NID 20 S 4HV 20 SSW GUC 20 NNE 4SL 30 E SOW 65 SW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 10 E INK 35 WNW
ABI 35 NW MLC 35 SW CNU 25 SSW HLC 40 N GLD 45 N IML 30 NNW OMA 15
SW OTM 25 W MVN 30 SW BNA 20 ESE CBM 35 NW HEZ 45 W POE 10 W GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CRP 40 WNW MFE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUED BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST
IN SEVERAL PIECES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH IS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
/CURRENTLY NEAR 29N AND 124W/ WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE
4-CORNERS REGION ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. 
MEANWHILE...STRONG DISTURBANCE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RETROGRADE
SWWD...FORMING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO OFF
THE PACIFIC NW AND CA COASTS.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THIS LOW
GENERALLY DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS KS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME FROM THIS
LOW SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHES EWD OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.

...SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...
INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
MASS NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS INTO
SRN OK BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. A PLUME OF RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /7 -8 C/KM/ ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD NRN EXTENT OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTING
TO LI/S OF -2 TO -3...MLCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG...AND ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG CAP.

A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY FROM ERN TX INTO AR ALONG ERN
EDGE OF LLJ AXIS WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKER...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT
ANY SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE UNLIKELY FARTHER W ACROSS
MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS OWING TO GREATER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
IN AN ARC FROM NRN KS/SRN NEB INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL
WAA INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ALONG NOSE OF 50-60KT LLJ. WHILE SOME
SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE
THREAT.

...CA TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION...
RATHER COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -22 TO -24 C AT 500 MB/ ON
CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET AXES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY
WIDE CORRIDOR OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BROAD...WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING
COUPLED WITH MORE LOCALIZED ASCENT IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

..MEAD.. 02/18/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.