[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180607
SWODY2
SPC AC 180605

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 30 WNW FST 25 ESE
ABI 35 NW MLC 35 SW CNU 25 SSW HLC 40 N GLD 45 N IML 30 NNE GRI 40
SW IRK 20 ENE MDH 30 SW BNA 20 ESE CBM 35 NW HEZ 45 W POE 10 W GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CRP 40 WNW MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CEC 45 N MER 30 ENE
FAT 70 NNE NID 20 S 4HV 20 SSW GUC 20 NNE 4SL 30 E SOW 65 SW TUS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NRN
STREAM IMPULSE DROPS SWD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING FROM THE PACIFIC LOW WILL TRAVEL ACROSS
THE DESERTS AND INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. 
STRONGEST IMPULSE WILL MOVE TO THE 4-CORNERS EARLY SATURDAY AND TO
THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  FALLING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A LEE-LOW OVER CO THAT WILL DEVELOP EWD
INTO SRN KS BY 12Z/20TH.  FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL
REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  COMBINATION OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN CLOUDS/PCPN OVER A WIDE SWATH OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. 
MINIMAL HEATING/MASS CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS
LOW.  OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
PCPN BAND...HOWEVER.

MORE LIKELY AREA FOR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS FROM SRN NEB...NRN KS INTO PARTS OF MO AND AR WHERE STRONGEST
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD.  MOISTENING COLUMN AND STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE
TO SUPPORT TSTMS.  

OTHER TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SWRN STATES AND PARTS OF CA
WHERE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS COASTAL CA.

..RACY.. 02/18/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.