[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 141732
SWODY2
SPC AC 141731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST MON FEB 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW SSU 10 E TRI
45 SSW TYS 20 ENE HSV 10 NNE UOX 25 E LIT 55 NNW LIT 20 SW TBN 30
NNE VIH 30 SSW SPI 25 W DAY 30 NW CMH 10 SW CAK 10 ESE PIT 15 N EKN
10 WNW SSU.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING REX BLOCK FROM THE GULF OF AK SWD ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF DOWNSTREAM ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
WRN/CENTRAL STATES.  THIS FLOW REGIME WILL EXTEND TO THE ERN
SEABOARD AS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN STATES DE-AMPLIFIES AND
MOVES ENEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST.  COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SERN CANADA...AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
JETS NOSE INTO SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY.  SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED
TO INITIALLY EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD TO THE OK/KS BORDER WILL
STRENGTHEN BY 16/00Z BENEATH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AS IT MOVES SWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY.

...SERN MO/NERN AR ENEWD ALONG OH/TN VALLEYS...
ALTHOUGH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THIS
REGION...LIMITED RETURN OF MODIFIED WRN GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MINIMIZE THE AVAILABLE SBCAPE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FOR
AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  INCREASING WAA ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LLJ
NOSING INTO SERN MO/LOWER OH VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TRANSLATING NEWD SHOULD AID IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION FOR TSTMS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. STRONG...DEEP UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING TREND
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT SUGGEST CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF WSW-ENE BANDS AS ACTIVITY MOVES SWD. 
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS.. 02/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.