[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 150549
SWODY2
SPC AC 150548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE FLO 35 NW FLO 40
ESE CLT 35 SSW GSO 15 NE GSO 20 SE LYH 25 SE CHO 25 SSW DCA 15 SE
BWI 30 NE DOV 10 E ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S EKA 45 WSW RBL
60 N SAC 40 SW TVL 30 E MER 50 S FAT 20 S VBG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES WITH A FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SEWD AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN U.S. SWWD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE CAROLINAS NEWD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE TODAY AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACCOMPANYING THE DEVELOPING SWLY FLOW WILL BE LIMITED...WITH
ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY. RICHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
GULF STREAM WATERS NEAR AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RETURN OF MOISTURE...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7 C/KM. ETA MAY BE OVER
FORECASTING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OVER ERN NC INTO PARTS OF ERN VA.
HOWEVER...MLCAPE COULD RANGE FROM 300 TO 800 J/KG BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT INTERCEPTS AXIS OF MODEST
INSTABILITY FROM ERN NC INTO ERN VA. STRONG LARGELY SWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THREAT OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ULTIMATELY BE
A LIMITING FACTOR...SO ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 02/15/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.