[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 140542
SWODY2
SPC AC 140541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BKW 35 WSW BKW
45 SSE JKL 15 N CSV 20 ESE MKL 30 N MEM 10 NE ARG 60 NW POF 35 SSW
STL 15 NNE SLO 15 NNW BMG 20 W DAY 10 NNE CMH 20 NE ZZV 35 SSW HLG
40 W EKN 30 NNE BKW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ON
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
STRENGTHEN WITHIN COUPLED JET STRUCTURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL DEVELOP SWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.


...OH THROUGH TN VALLEYS...

SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
FROM TX THROUGH PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR OVER THE WRN GULF WILL
YIELD LIMITED RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
THUS...DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL
AT BEST. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IN PRESENCE OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE. OWING TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 02/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.